The complete list of megaprojects at the wikipedia [oil megaprojects] is for over 13 million barrels per day added. Plus there is all of the small 200-25000 barrel per day small wells. Like several hundred in the Bakken to offset any 4.5% decline. Ten of thousands of small rigs. As pointed out by Dan a reader, 2006, 2007 were flat oil production years so roughly 3.5-4 million b/d of megaprojects has gone to offsetting decline. So 3 to 3.5 million b/d is the projected excess from 2008, 2009. So it would be 6-7 million barrels per day to be added net of any decline for the end of 2009 and into 2010 as those new additions scale up. If the increase in large projects also indicates more small projects then say 0.5-1.5 million b/d each year from that increase.
So if we are 87.3 million b/d Jan 2008.
Then my prediction is a little over 90 million b/d at the end of 2008 (not the full 3.5-5 million b/d increase because of lag in scaling)
For the end of 2009, over 94 million b/d and for the end of 2010, over 97 million b/d.
OIL Projects 100,000 barrels of oil per day or larger, Big to smaller
Country Project Name Company Peak Yr Peak amt bopd
Saudi Arabia AFK Aramco 2009 500,000 [Abu Hadriya;Fadhili;Khursaniyah]
Russia Vankorskoye TNK-BP Rosneft 2017 420,000 bopd towards the end of 2008
Mexico Amatitlan PEMEX 2029 393,000
Saudi Arabia Hawiyah Aramco 2009 318,000 (NGL)
Azerbaijan ACG Phs III BP 260,000 [Q208]
USA Thunder Horse BP 250,000 End of 2008
Canada Cold Lake CNRL 2018 240,000
Nigeria Agbami Chevron 2010 230,000 [first oil Q308, ramped up Q309]
Nigeria Akpo Total 180,000 [Probably early 2009]
Brazil Marlim SM2 P-51 Petrobras 180,000 P-51 On track for mid-2008
Brazil Marlim Leste P-53 Petrobras 180,000 P-53 also on track second half 2008
Russia YK Lukoil 2009 150,000 [ramping up 2008-2009]
Kazakhstan Dunga Maersk 150,000
Canada Firebag; Steepbank Suncor 2010 140,000
Qatar Ras Laffan QP 140,000
Canada Horizon CNRL 135,000
Iran Azadegan P1 NIOC 2012 125,000
Norway Alvheim; Marathon 2009 120,000
Nigeria EA expand Shell 115,000
Iran Darkhovin P2 NIOC 2008 110,000
Brazil ML(FPSO C d Niteroi) Petrobras 100,000
Angola B15 Kizomba C (Mondo) ExxonMobil 100,000
Angola B15 KizC(Saxi;Batuque) ExxonMobil 100,000
Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday that they will start adding 500,000 bpd to its total capacity when the Khursaniyah field comes on stream this month. Abdulaziz al-Judaimi, vice president of new business development at Saudi Aramco said, “The Khursaniyah field will start producing within a month at 300,000 bpd and will eventually add 500,000 bpd to the country’s production capacity.”
The United states has the Thunder Horse deep sea oil project in the Gulf of Mexico, which should produce 1 billion barrels of oil with 250,000 barrels per day. The Bakken needs pipelines and refinery capacity to reach its full potential, which I think is (US and Canada combined) 250,000 bopd by 2008 and 500,000 bopd by 2010 and 1 million bopd by 2013 and 2 million by 2015. Bakken could go higher but then it would require new drilling technology advances for higher recovery. I think that will happen as well.
The US part of the Gulf of Mexico could be producing a daily yield of 800,000 and accounting for 11 percent of US oil production by 2011. This would be follow up to the Jack2 test well by Chevron, which indicates 3-15 billion barrels of oil.
from Jan 14,2008 London oilsands forum
Horizon oil phase I Q3 2008 for 110,000 bopd,later expanding to 232,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d. The Horizon section has 15 billion barrels of oil in place and current technology can recover 6-8 billion barrels.
Also, there was a separate analysis from the EIA that oil demand was increasing at less than 1 million b/d per year and in 2008 will increase by 1.3 million b/d. How demand changes (based on economic growth and changes) will effect the other side of the supply/demand and therefore oil price equation.
EIA on natural gas until 2030 The trend has been increasing reserves and increasing demand.