Ideafestival talks about J. Richard Gott’s predictions based on the Copernican Principle, which is that there is nothing special about the moment in time we are at. Therefore, we can use how old something is now and then suppose that it has a 50% chance of continuing to double that age and then set a confidence range of three standard deviations to get a confidence range of 5-95% for the expected future life of anything.
In 1993, he predicted that the space program would last between 10 months and 125 years – again this is with a 95 percent statistical confidence. With 95% confidence, humanities life expectency on earth would be an additional 5,100 years and 7.8 million years.
Therefore, there is high priority on setting up colonies offworld and having a dynamic space capability very soon before the space program might end.