Bloomberg reports Japan Steel Works Ltd., which makes reactor parts for Areva SA, Toshiba Corp. and rivals, more than doubled its forecast for China’s nuclear plant construction because of stimulus spending and environmental pressures. The country may build about 22 reactors in the five years ending 2010 and 132 units thereafter, compared with a company estimate last year for a total 60 reactors, President Ikuo Sato said in an interview. The Bloomberg article incorrectly states that Japan Steel is the only maker of the large forgings for reactor pressure vessels.
World Nuclear news has coverage of the Japan Steel boosted estimate and it relates to the prior target of 40 GW by 2020 by China which is now likely to be up to 86 GW or more. There is a new energy plan coming from China by the end of 2009 and will likely increase renewable and nuclear energy targets.
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The projection seems to be based on a combination of estimated energy demand and an estimate of country by country build capacity. About 25% of the capacity and demand is in China and India and 12% in the United States. The estimates are adjusted as plans and developments are occuring in each country. For example, the estimate for China in 2030 has been increasing as China continues