January 16, 2010

Brad Templeton on Robocars - Where will They Take You ?

Robocars - where will they take you ?

Human drivers kill 40,000 per year in the US.
3 parking spaces per car up to 60% of the land in LA.
DARPA contests.
2007 Urban grand challenge.

Coming or here now
Auto parallel parking
lane changing warning
Infiniti lane departure prevention
Volvo - nobody will die in a Volvo by 2020 (may extend to no one will be killed by a Volvo)
Mercedes Pre-safe applies brakes before accident
VW - lane following, passing, parking garage pillar avoidance

==> Hundreds of thousands of lives saved per year, and energy savings
Military 1/3 of all vehicles autonomous by 2015

Programmers can save the world.
Experimenter has a self driving Prius which he allowed to drive across the Bay Bridge. He was ready to takeover if it was not doing well, but has had ttrips where he did not take the steering wheel.

Ultralight vehicles. Ten times more efficient than transit or regular cars.

Moore's law to Transportation
- vehicles get twice as good per century (may not even be able to achieve this)

Moore's law was a marketing law.

Steps on the way


Political issues
-Must be made legal
Must not be over-regulated
jurisdictions will compete
Possibly Singapore, China, India, Israel, Japan
Children, the aged, the Drunk, some Jews [ a joke related to groups that should be pro-robocars. some jewish people would want robocars to exist so that they could argue about whether they are permissible on Saturday]

-no walking
-longer trips, Robo-RV, super-sprawl
-computer intrusion, bugs



Abuse of robocar avoidance

Engineering Challenges
-Range not a factor
- acceleration and speed not a factor
- comfort much more of a factor, soft ride
- want to be sharable
- different safety constraints
- small width, single passenger or face to face, sleepers, RV


62 lines, 50 meter pavement, 120 m cars
1 centimeter resolution
$75,000 now but nothing in it which could not be brought down to $300

Poor Man's Teleporter

Travel is fully productive
- read, work, vidoe conference

The end of congestion
-smaller vehicles
- light timing
- closer spacing
-smart intersections & 4 way stops
-greater "rational" predictabiity & obedien to simpler traffic code
-never blocking streets

Smarter Traffic
-metering lights
-congestion charging
(2000 cars per mile per lane max before congestion collapse)
Routing based on congestion predictions
Reservatios for use of road space
pavement for road use, all toll roads
- dutch auctions for road use

Paul Saffo on Engineers, druids, and the growing foresight deficit

Paul thinks the polerization of politics will spread to science (beyond just environmentalism.

Engineers say flee into the future faster than ever. Use technical solutions. By nature an optimist.

Druids - the old technical solutions got us into this mess. By nature pessimists.

DDT - Silent Spring environmental movement

Nuclear power development - Rickover - Nuclear subs and Light Water reactors for power and plutonium - But there were better reactors options - four decades anti nuclear movement

San Jose solar poewr farm - Past Salinas 420 MW on 3000 acres. (Penochay)

Reaction against solar megafields. Solar megafields are to now what the hydro dams were to the early twentieth century.

Put solar closer to people and places that are already built up. Like roofs in LA (I am posting Paul Saffo's views and talk. Long time readers will know that I have a differing opinion)

Stewart Brand and the promotion of nuclear power for energy.

1995, Newt Gingrinch shut down Office of Technology Assessment ($22 million per year to run).

Need to move foresight to the masses.

Need to engage powerful short term thinkers (Wall Street).

Need to repopulate the political and technological middle.

Uplifting One Billion People in Ten Years

Kartik Gada of Reliance GP discusses uplifting one billion people in ten years.

How much can be done in a decade ?

Prizes for tech to help the very poor.

First prize for water treatment for the poor.

I think the lifesaver bottle is what he is talking about

Reprap type device for the poor.

$100K prize that takes waste plastic (or other material) and makes more of itself and other products.

Roadmaps to Nanotech and AGI

J Storrs Hall discusses roadmaps to nanotech and AGI.

Conical example of worldchanging tech that was poo-pood prior to success is airplanes. But is necessary to understand why airplanes succeeded in detail.

We observer heavier than air birds
Study them and understand

Similarly for nanotech we have the molecular mechanisms in the cell that make life itself work. It uses positionally controlled chemistry and diiffusive transport

Similarly for AGI we have brains.

Phases -Industrial Revolution

inspiration horses
theoretical underpinnings discovery of atmosphere
experimentation -newcomen, valve control, coal mine pumps
technical take off point- Watt, machine tools, high pressure
economic take off point -railroads, steamships, steam shovels, tractors, looms, factories. (had to go to high pressure steam engines to allow engines small enough and powerful enough.)

Air transportation

Inspiration birds
Theoretical underpinnings - aerodynamic of lift
Experimentation - Lilienthal, gliders, wind tunnel
Technical take off point - wright brothers, wing-warping (built non-crashing flying machine)
Economic takeoff point - airmail, WW1 fighters, passenger service


Inspiration - Life
Theoretical Underpinnings - molecular biology, chemistry, mechanical engineer
Experimentation - nanodevices, poistional chemistry, atomically precise fabrication (we are here)
Technical takeoff point - molecular machine tools
Economic take off point - nanofactories, molecular-level recycling, cheap devices

General AI

Inspration Brains
Theoretical Underpinnings -computation, control theory, neuro & psych
Experimentation - computers, software, networks, complex systems
Technical takeoff point - self improving software
Economic take off point - robust, trainable AI, useful robots, robo-cars, natural language interfaces

Technical Takeoff
-Embodies the essential function of the proposed technology
-is proof that the concept works
- focuses technical effort
-is a vehicle for practical experience
- attracts financial (etc) resources
-forms a crack in the dam

Getting to Technical Takeoff

Precise pathway does not matter so much
-many approaches should be tried
-everything afterward will be done differently anyway
-the key is to understand the properties of the takeoff point
-for many technologies, autogeny is the key (for nanotech)

Inspiration - manual calculation
Theoretical Underpinnings - Jacquard, Hollerith, Turing
Experimentation - Data Processing, Norden Bombsight, Eniac
Technical takeoff point - Von Neumann arch, data=program
Economic take off point -

Nanotech Topo Map

Technology ==> shape/ moving parts / powered / productive / general

Macro hammer / wagon / car / factory / Fab Lab

Micro MEMS /

Nano nanotubes, DNA origami, catalysts / Goals

AGI Topo Map

Extendability==> Add code /Train / Teach / Imitates /Invent from scratch

Level SOTA Deep Blue
(State of the Art Line)



Hilton |=================|
Obama off | Human |
K & R | Range |

Turing | |

Newton |=================| Weakly
God-like AI

AI/Nanotech Synergies

Nano helps with the computers for AI prior to tech takeoff
Main interaction happens after technical takeoff

AI design nano
nano sensors to feed AI
AI controls nano
Nano effectors for AI

Contributions of Robert Freitas to Molecular Nanotechnology

Ralph Merkle discusses the contributions of Robert Freitas to Molecular Nanotechnology.

Ralph gives his introduction to molecular manufacturing.

Many development pathways and the a convergence to develop core molecular manufacturing capabilities.

Robert has contributed on the development pathways and the design and understanding of nanomedicine.

* Nanomedicine Volume I basic capabilities book 1999
* Nanomedicine Volume IIA biocompatibility
* recyprocyte
* microbiovores
* chromallocyte
* Kinematic self replicating machines

Even long term opportunities have value as they can encourage and guide near term work to achieve them.

Narrow down from whole periodic table to Hydrogen, Carbon and Germanium.

Minimal molecular toolset papers.

do the analysis of the steps and energetics and make sure that the pathological reactions (what you do not want to happen does not happen)

Optimal tooltip trajectories in a hydrogen abstraction tool Recharge reaction sequence for positionally controlled diamond mechanosynthesis

Atom by Atom Nanostructuring and single atom chemical identification at room temperature

Continuing liveblogging of Foresight 2010.

Oscar Custance winner of the 2009 experimental Feynmann prize presents his work on the experimental demonstration of mechanosynthesis

Oscar Custance's website

Oscar Custance is a scientist specialized in atomic resolution dynamic force microscopy (DFM) operated using the frequency modulation detection method –a technique also known as non-contact atomic force microscopy (NC-AFM). He also has a strong background on atomic resolution scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and spectroscopy (STS) in ultra high vacuum environment.

Motivated by the potential of atomic resolution DFM, as well as by a marked interest in the Japanese culture, he joined Prof. Seizo Morita's Laboratory (Osaka University, Japan) as a postdoctoral fellow in February of 2002. Due to his remarkable research results, published in high visibility journals, and the impact of his skills for the direction and coordination of both research lines and researchers in the work of the group, he was promoted to Visiting Associate Professor in 2005.

Since February 2008, he is a permanent researcher at the National Institute for Materials Sciences (NIMS), and leader of the Nanomechanics Group of the Advanced Nano Characterization Center. His current research activities focus on applying dynamic force microscopy and the atomic manipulation, force spectroscopy and chemical identification tools he has contributed to develop to clarify problem in material science at atomic and molecular scale. He also has a strong commitment to further develop the DFM detection technique towards the achievement of highest sensitivity, and explore other instruments and techniques with relevance in nanomechanics studies and nanoscience in general.

Brief intro to experimental technique FM-AFM

Nano structuring atom by atom using AFM
- Lateral
- vertical

Chemical ID


Atomic Resolution Dynamic Force microscopy

Frequency modulation AFM
non-contact AFM (length 225 microns, width 38 microns, thickness 7 microns, height 12 microns)

Ch. Loppacher et al , Phys Rev B, 62, 16944 (2000)

UFV-AFM & Interferometric Detection.

Journal Science - How to Move an Atom

Oscar reviews the history of moving atoms from Eigler forward and a lot of scientific and technical detail.

Controlling the natural diffusion energy barriers.

Use the AFM tip to lower the energy barrier between two atoms in a controlled way.

Manipulation procedure -
* Appropriate selection of the tip scan direction
* Tuning the tip-surface interaction force

the scan driection is working over a 1.9 nanometer square

Atomic force microscopy as a tool for atom manipulation
Nature Nanotechnology 4, 803 2009.

During the past 20 years, the manipulation of atoms and molecules at surfaces has allowed the construction and characterization of model systems that could, potentially, act as building blocks for future nanoscale devices. The majority of these experiments were performed with scanning tunnelling microscopy at cryogenic temperatures. Recently, it has been shown that another scanning probe technique, the atomic force microscope, is capable of positioning single atoms even at room temperature. Here, we review progress in the manipulation of atoms and molecules with the atomic force microscope, and discuss the new opportunities presented by this technique.

Reproducibilty on other surfaces at room temperature
Tin, silicon, germanium, indium

An instrument that combines the strengths of AFM and STM allows determination of the forces required to move a single atom on a surface.

Verical interchange manipulations in Tin and silicon.

Complex Patterning by Vertical Interchange Atom Manipulation Using Atomic Force Microscopy
Science 322, 413 (2008

Nature nanotechnology 4, 803 2009

Manipulation mechanism: DFT (density function theory) simulations

Atomic pencil
Doing atom manipulations in 1.5 hours instead of 9+ hours.

Chemical identification with STM:IETS

Bonding forces should bear chemical information
Look at the force pattern on the tip as distance closes over the distance of fractions of angstroms. Match the pattern to see what atom is being addressed.

Chemical identification of individual surface atoms by atomic force microscopy
Nature 446 , 64 (2007)

Scanning probe microscopy is a versatile and powerful method that uses sharp tips to image, measure and manipulate matter at surfaces with atomic resolution. At cryogenic temperatures, scanning probe microscopy can even provide electron tunnelling spectra that serve as fingerprints of the vibrational properties of adsorbed molecules and of the electronic properties of magnetic impurity atoms, thereby allowing chemical identification. But in many instances, and particularly for insulating systems, determining the exact chemical composition of surfaces or nanostructures remains a considerable challenge. In principle, dynamic force microscopy should make it possible to overcome this problem: it can image insulator, semiconductor and metal surfaces with true atomic resolution by detecting and precisely measuring the short-range forces that arise with the onset of chemical bonding between the tip and surface atoms and that depend sensitively on the chemical identity of the atoms involved. Here we report precise measurements of such short-range chemical forces, and show that their dependence on the force microscope tip used can be overcome through a normalization procedure. This allows us to use the chemical force measurements as the basis for atomic recognition, even at room temperature. We illustrate the performance of this approach by imaging the surface of a particularly challenging alloy system and successfully identifying the three constituent atomic species silicon, tin and lead, even though these exhibit very similar chemical properties and identical surface position preferences that render any discrimination attempt based on topographic measurements impossible

First principle calculations for tin and silicon

Using the same composition of tips but different structure
Using the same structure but different composition

the relative interation ratio for two atomic species probed with the same tip is quantification of the relative strength these surface atoms.


- atomic resolution AFM a fundamental tool of science and tech
- AFM provides access to the atomic structure of insulating surfaces
- similar atomic scale results are now starting to be reproduced in liquid environment

Groups and people doing research in dynamic force microscopy working with atomic resolution

List of talks made by Oscar Custance

Oscar Custance publications

Liveblogging the Foresight 2010 Conference - Hod Lipson - Adaptive and Self Reflective Systems

Foresight 2010 Conference speaker Hod Lipson of Cornell University - Adaptive and Self Reflective Systems

Talk about adaptation shape and behavior (AI and manufacturing)

Adaptive Behavior
- Self reflection and learning simulators

Adaptive Morphology
- Self assembly and programmable matter

Most of work initiated in robotics and expanded beyond it.

Industrial robots are super human in precision and almost all other factors compared to humans, but they lack adaptability.

iRobot roombas (vacuums) are more adaptable to a changing environment.

Cornell is looking at robotic evolution.
The Golem Project is discussed

Simulated system to learn and then created the robots and had them adapt to the environment.
It works for simple things but does not scale.

Hod Lipson website

Evolve in reality takes too many trials and is too expensive. Again it does not scale.

Co-evolution of simulator and robots

Simulate and get/evolve your best simulated robot
Then fabricate this robot and try it and get feedback sensor data
Then evolve your simulator to make a better simulated robot
and keep cycling through this loop.

Additional method- the learning system will determine a test for different choices and selects the test that would generate the most disagreement between choices.

Self Modeling
- figure out what you have (how many legs, sensors etc...)
- then figure out how to achieve goals based on it

Damage Recovery
-adapt to losing a leg

Can it model its own controller ? Its own brain

Can a robot model another robot ? Social behavior
-theory of mind
-recursion (how does the other robot model the first robot)

Shape changing robots
(simple) Robots that replicate and assemble
Fabbing components for robots (print the components)

developed Fab@home

Goal is to fab a robot that will walk out of the printer (not yet)

Killer fab@home app is printing food.

Gizmodo today reports on a dedicated 3D food printer

MIT has the Cornucopia: Digital Gastronomy project

Cornucopia is a concept design for a personal food factory that brings the versatility of the digital world to the realm of cooking. In essence, it is a three dimensional printer for food, which works by storing, precisely mixing, depositing and cooking layers of ingredients.

Cornucopia's cooking process starts with an array of food canisters, which refrigerate and store a user's favorite ingredients. These are piped into a mixer and extruder head that can accurately deposit elaborate combinations of food. While the deposition takes place, the food is heated or cooled by Cornucopia's chamber or the heating and cooling tubes located on the printing head. This fabrication process not only allows for the creation of flavors and textures that would be completely unimaginable through other cooking techniques, but it also allows the user to have ultimate control over the origin, quality, nutritional value and taste of every meal.

Using millimeter sized bricks and components for assembling things.


Using reflection and sensing for a simulated bridge to figure out where a weak component was. It was faster and more accurate than traditional civil engineering methods.

Evolving equations to describe data.
Evolving equations to describe dynamics.

Evolve implicit equations for static equations that describe something about some data points.
Able to determine hamilitonians and lagrangians without knowing physics in advance.

Open source Eureqa has been applied to the stock market, patterns in herding cows and much more.

Hamiltonians are evolvable.


Accelerate our ability to hypothesize, test and model.

Others are working on evolutionary game theory

Liveblogging the Foresight 2010 Conference - First Larry Millstein one DNA sequencing

The Foresight 2010 conference in today and tomorrow

Free live webcast at: http://www.techzulu.com/live.html
Follow the conference on Twitter: #Foresight2010

The first speaker is Larry Millstein who is speaking on Sequencing Single DNA molecules.

Larry is going through an initial tutorial on DNA, DNA replication and DNA sequencing.

Here is an online tutorial on the steps of DNA replication (by someone else)

Here is DNA replication at wikipedia

DNA polymerase at wikipedia

DNA template is described at Yale

* a couple of slides on the massive progress and fast rate of progress in lowering the cost of Genome sequencing and sequencing 1 million base pairs
* a series slides on the steps for DNA sequencing
* long reads versus short reads (7X coverage for long reads and 20X coverage for short reads, but future advance will likely erase this difference)

Illumina is a leader and their latest machine costs $650,000 and generates 25 billion base pair sequences per day (8X coverage of the human genome, so one good read of a full genome per day)

10 terabases per year, 200 HGE (human genome equivalents) per machine

Beijing Genomics Institute bought 200 machines and now has a capacity of 2 petabases per year.


21-28 gigabases/run
takes 8 days to do a run

Pacific Biosciences
The theoretical limit of real time single molecule sequencing.

Work is done in zero waveguides. (ZMW)
The ZWV are about 50 nanometers around and can hold 600,000 molecules. (20 X 10^-21 liters)

Put DNA into the ZMW covalently.

The DNA bonds briefly to the bottom connection point where the flourescent attached can put a single that can be read. About 100 reads per second. The DNA that is flying free has flourescents too but are moving around too fast to give a signal.

No commercial model yet
expected sub-$1000 genome sequencing
sub 1 HGE in 4 hours
Maybe much better


Real time single molecule sequencing.
No fabrication of ZMW wells
Forster Energy Transfer

commercial device for 2011
sub-$1000 HGE
4 hour for HGE

Cracker (Taiwan company)

CMOS technology

Beyond Real Time Single Model Sequecing
Direct sequencing

Nanopore sequencing
figure out which base pair is passing through a pore in a membrane

EM Sequencing
use an electron microscope

AFM sequencing
use STEM and AFM
Applications of NexGen Sequencing

Whole genome sequencing - human variation, disease risk
Genome scanning - cancer SNPs
Populations wide genomic sequecing -HIV variants
Ancient DNA sequencing - Neanderthal etc...
synthetic biology

Metagenomics potential
Figure out the big genomics and biological picture for whole planet/biosphere


DNA Polymerase has one in a million error rate. Need to error check.

Is an ensemble sometimes better than one ?

Can single molecule SBS be used as the read out for computational devices based on DNA ?

Can single molecule SBS be used as the basis for programmable molecular assemblers ?

January 15, 2010

Update on Scale of Haiti Disaster

The death toll from the massive earthquake in the capital Port-au-Prince could reach 200,000, Interior Minister Paul Antoine Bien-Aime says.

"We have already collected around 50,000 dead bodies. We anticipate there will be between 100,000 and 200,000 dead in total, although we will never know the exact number," the minister said.

The security situation is deteriorating and United States authorities are preparing for the possibility of rioting.

There is also the risk of a disease outbreak.

Many believe the Haitian population is especially vulnerable. The country has long suffered from high rates of malnutrition, and less than half the population has any access to drinking water at the best of times. There was no public sewage system even before the earthquake. Nearly 200,000 Haitians have HIV or AIDS, and just half the childhood population is vaccinated against basic diseases like diphtheria.

Avril Benoît, director of communications for Médicin sans frontières Canada said yesterday that despite Haiti’s fragile state, the spread of disease was not an immediate threat.

“We are always concerned about it, keeping an eye on it,” she told reporters. “There is no question that clean drinking water is a priority right now, but risks of disease spreading are seldom seen.”

Haiti has a population of just under 10 million and Port au Prince the devasted capital has a population of about 3 million.

If the 200,000 figure proves to be accurate that would be 2% of the population of Haiti killed in the earthquake and over 6% of the capital of Port au Prince.

The New York Post reports of fears of the Haiti death toll reach half a million (500,000). If the 500,000 figure happens, then Haiti would have nearly 1% of 55 million deaths that typically occur worldwide in one year.

Whole shantytowns had slid off the side of hilltops, and even the mightiest of buildings -- including several hospitals, the presidential palace and the United Nations headquarters -- had fallen like houses of cards

Officials said they feared it could rise to a staggering 500,000, although they cautioned those figures were highly speculative.

"I don't know," Preval told CNN when asked how many were killed.

Groups of men with machetes roved the ruins seeking supplies of food or water; others used corpses as roadblocks, a macabre sign that the capital had reached breaking point after four days of apocalyptic scenes.

Wikipedia has a list of earthquakes by death toll

List of deadly earthquakes since 1900 at wikipedia

Ocean Based Orbital Payload Delivery Cannon for $250 per pound

* The Quicklaunch will cost $562 million to develop over 4 phases and 8 years
* One thousand pound payloads.
* 10-28% payload fraction (full scale system will have 28% payload fraction)
* the donuts around the tube are for bouyancy and for rigidity and precision alignment
* 97+% recapture of the hydrogen gas to recycle the gas
* Cellphone electronics are G hardened, just replace the transformers
* Bigger systems can be built
* Neutrally bouyant barrel made out of composite, so no gravitational sag

Quicklaunch designs shows that all of the high-g issues of my nuclear cannon design can be resolved. If larger projectiles have issues then can launch many smaller projectiles at the same time. The nuclear launch system can achieve the 9km/sec speed so no booster is needed. The nuclear cannon can have a deeper hole to allow reduced g-forces even when accelerating to 9 km/sec instead of 6 km/sec.

The video below shows a high g-hardened satellite that was built.

How to Shoot Stuff into Space
The gun combusts natural gas in a heat exchanger within a chamber of hydrogen gas, heating the hydrogen to 2,600˚F and causing a 500 percent increase in pressure.

Operators open the valve, and the hot, pressurized hydrogen quickly expands down the tube, pushing the payload forward.

After speeding down the 3,300-foot-long barrel, the projectile shoots out of the gun at 13,000 mph. An iris at the end of the gun closes, capturing the hydrogen gas to use again.

One Hour Video of Presentation Made at Google Dec, 2009

Blow off aero shell at 100 km altitude

Plug nozzle booster

Orbital Depot

Diamond Icebergs and Oceans on Uranus and Neptune

Discovery news reports that diamond oceans possible on Uranus and Neptune

Ultrahigh pressures, the kind of pressures found in huge gas giants like Neptune and Uranus are some of the places where ultrahigh temperatures and ultrahigh pressures exist. Eggert and his colleagues placed a small, natural, clear diamond, about a tenth of a carat by weight and half a millimeter thick, and blasted it with lasers at ultrahigh pressures.

The scientists liquefied the diamond at pressures 40 million times greater than what a person feels when standing at sea level on Earth. From there they slowly reduced the temperature and pressure.

When the pressure dropped to about 11 million times the atmospheric pressure at sea level on Earth and the temperature dropped to about 50,000 degrees solid chunks of diamond began to appear. The pressure kept dropping, but the temperature of the diamond remained the same, with more and more chunks of diamond forming.

Then the diamond did something unexpected. The chunks of diamond didn't sink. They floated. Microscopic diamond ice burgs floating in a tiny sea of liquid diamond. The diamond was behaving like water.

With most materials, the solid state is more dense than the liquid state. Water is an exception to that rule; when water freezes, the resulting ice is actually less dense than the surrounding water, which is why the ice floats and fish can survive a Minnesota winter.

An ocean of diamond could help explain the orientation of the planet's magnetic field as well, said Eggert. Roughly speaking, the Earth's magnetic poles match up with the geographic poles. The magnetic and geographic poles on Uranus and Neptune do not match up; in fact, they can be up to 60 degrees off of the north-south axis.

Up to 10 percent of Uranus and Neptune is estimated to be made from carbon. A huge ocean of liquid diamond in the right place could deflect or tilt the magnetic field out of alignment with the rotation of the planet.

Nature Physics - Melting temperature of diamond at ultrahigh pressure

Since Ross proposed that there might be ‘diamonds in the sky’ in 1981, the idea of significant quantities of pure carbon existing in giant planets such as Uranus and Neptune has gained both experimental and theoretical support. It is now accepted that the high-pressure, high-temperature behaviour of carbon is essential to predicting the evolution and structure of such planets. Still, one of the most defining of thermal properties for diamond, the melting temperature, has never been directly measured. This is perhaps understandable, given that diamond is thermodynamically unstable, converting to graphite before melting at ambient pressure, and tightly bonded, being the strongest bulk material known. Shock-compression experiments on diamond reported here reveal the melting temperature of carbon at pressures of 0.6–1.1 TPa (6–11 Mbar), and show that crystalline diamond can be stable deep inside giant planets such as Uranus and Neptune. The data indicate that diamond melts to a denser, metallic fluid—with the melting curve showing a negative Clapeyron slope—between 0.60 and 1.05 TPa, in good agreement with predictions of first-principles calculations. Temperature data at still higher pressures suggest diamond melts to a complex fluid state, which dissociates at shock pressures between 1.1 and 2.5 TPa (11–25 Mbar) as the temperatures increase above 50,000 K

Ten pages of supplemental material

Targets consisted of a ~500 μm-thick diamond disk glued to a 50 μm-thick diamond-turned aluminum disk. A plastic ablator was used to minimize hard x-ray generation in the laser-plasma region. Both single-crystal, natural, type-1a diamond, and poly-crystalline, synthetic, type 2a diamond disks with an average grain size of about 130 μm were used. The polycrystalline diamond wafers were made by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on a silicon substrate with an initial seed-grain size of ~10 nm; there was little preferred orientation.

The OMEGA laser at the University of Rochester was used to produce strong shocks by focusing 1-ns pulses with up to 3 kJ of 351-nm laser light to a flat spot ~600 μm in diameter.

Avatar IMAX Passes $100 million Being Driven by 3D and Number One Possibilities after Avatar and the Future Movie Industry

Imax passes $100 mil globally with 'Avatar 3D'

James Cameron's sci-fi epic is still set to screen for seven more weeks on Imax's giant screens, "Avatar" to date has raked in $68 million in premium North American ticket receipts and $33 million in overseas boxoffice. Imax is expecting a Avatar Halo effect with a boost to future Imax releases.

Imax's 2010 Hollywood release slate also includes from DreamWorks Animation "How to Train Your Dragon 3D" and "Shrek Forever After 3D," "Tron Legacy 3D" and "Toy Story 3 3D" from Walt Disney Studios.

As previously predicted, $200 million worldwide from IMAX screening alone looks assured. $250 million probable. $300 million seems to be out of reach (barely, but could be wrong).

Avatar should make well over $200 million in China. This could be the beginning of China consistently being the second largest movie market after the USA (for highly visual action movies). Dramas or comedies will have less box office because of the translation barrier.

Avatar also seems to be signalling a revival of box office growth. The message to the movie industry seems to be make something that is groundbreaking in terms of visual spectacle and far beyond what the home experience is and people will come in droves.

In the U.S. and Canada, grosses from digital 3-D and Imax 3-D screens represented more than 80% of the total this weekend. When the movie opened, they were 71%.

Will James Cameron Battle Angel movie in 2011 be even bigger ?

Set in the 26th century, the story takes place 300 years after a societal collapse caused by a major war. In that society, it's a technological dark age following a pinnacle of achievement far beyond where we are right now. Cyborg technology is a way of life. People are augmented a lot as workers, so being a cyborg is not unusual.

A mix of cyborgs (like Terminator) and another step up in effects. It will be somewhat like Terminator world.

Another possibility for an even bigger box office movie will be Titanic itself. Titanic 3D will be released. Will the re-release generate enough box office to take the box office crowns back from Avatar ?

Nanostructures could make RRAM memory

Researchers constructed a type of superlattice that shows "unique low-to-high and high-to-low resistance switching that may be applicable to the fabrication of an emerging memory device known as resistive random access memory," or RRAM.

RRAM (Resistive random-access memory) at wikipedia

RRAM has the potential to become the front runner among other non-volatile memories. Compared to PRAM, RRAM operates at a faster timescale (switching time can be less than 10 ns), while compared to MRAM, it has a simpler, smaller cell structure (less than 8F2 MIM stack). Compared to flash memory and racetrack memory, a lower voltage is sufficient and hence it can be used in low power applications.

Superlattices are nanometer-scale structures made up of two materials layered on top of each other, like the alternating bread and meat in a club sandwich. A nanometer - visible only with the aid of a high-power electron microscope - is one billionth of a meter, and some nanomaterials are only a few atoms in size. By experimenting with materials at the nanometer level, researchers find that even common materials exhibit unusual properties. For example, metals developed at the nanometer scale may have fewer defects and could lead to stronger materials for construction. Semiconductors and magnetic materials developed at the nanometer scale may have different properties than the bulk material.

They produced two types of superlattices – known as defect-chemistry and compositional superlattices – from the materials magnetite and zinc ferrite. They then “grew” the materials on the single-crystal gold placed in a beaker filled with a solution.

The superlattices grown via the defect-chemistry method appear to hold promise for RRAM devices, Switzer says, because the resistance of the superlattice is a function of the applied bias. The fact that multiple resistance states can be accessed by simply varying the applied voltage opens up new possibilities for multi-bit data storage and retrieval.

Journal of the American Chemical Society -Resistance Switching in Electrodeposited Magnetite Superlattices

Defect-chemistry magnetite superlattices and compositional superlattices in the magnetite/zinc ferrite system are electrodeposited as epitaxial films onto single-crystal Au(111). The defect-chemistry superlattices have alternating nanolayers with different Fe(III)/Fe(II) ratios, whereas the compositional superlattices have alternating nanolayers with different Zn/Fe ratios. The electrochemical/chemical (EC) nature of the electrodeposition reaction is exploited to deposit the superlattices by pulsing the applied potential during deposition. The defect-chemistry superlattices show low-to-high and high-to-low resistance switching that may be applicable to the fabrication of resistive random access memory (RRAM).

9 pages of supporting info

Areva Atmea and Kerena Reactors

Areva had a blogger conference call this morning and among the items discussed are their new reactors in development. The Atmea- 1 (pressure water reactor) and the Kerena (SWR-1000) boiler water reactor. Areva is also working on a sodium fast reactor for France to increase burnup of actinides and is involved in the long term high temperature next generation nuclear plant project.


ATMEA1 became ready gor licensing applications at the end of 2009.

ATMEA1 brings together field-proven technology that is already incorporated into AREVA’s EPR (Evolutionary Power Reactor) and MHI’s APWR (Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor).

Design life of 60 years, 95% capacity factor
Optimized balance between active and passive safety systems.
A license application for Atmea I is expected within three years.


Areva calls its 1250 MWe Generation III+ boiling water reactor (BWR) design, provisionally known as SWR-1000 as Kerena
The Kerena design was been developed from that of the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant by Areva with extensive German input and using operating experience from Generation II BWRs to simplify systems engineering. The 1250-1290 MWe reactor has a 60 year operating life and uses high-burnup fuels, meaning that it can go for up to two years between refuelling outages. The simplified, standardised design incorporates passive safety systems alongside certain active ones and could be built in less than 48 months, according to Areva’s reactor design and construction arm, Areva NP.

Finland’s Fennovoima selected Kerena as one of three possible designs for its new build project, while German utility EOn agreed to work with Areva on further developing the reactor design as part of a 2008 agreement to cooperate on the construction of new UK nuclear power plants.

The SWR 1000 would contribute to  reduce the price per kWh by 10%

* Reactor positioned in the medium-power range (1000-1250 MW electrical)
* Calls extensively upon existing technology
* High capacity factor (above 90%)
* Designed to last for 60 years
* Maintenance simplified and service lifetime extended
* Flexibility in the amount of time fuel stays in the reactor(12-24 months)
* Increased fuel burnups (above 60 GWd/t)
* Reduced waste production
* Simplified systems and components

January 14, 2010

Foresight 2010 - The Synergy of Molecular Manufacturing and AGI

I, Brian Wang, will be speaking at Foresight 2010 - The Synergy of Molecular Manufacturing and AGI on Sunday, Jan 17, 2010 at 8:45 AM

The schedule for the conference is here

The conference is at 625 El Camino Real, Palo Alto, CA‎ - (650) 328-2800. Sheraton Palo Alto, California (in the San Francisco Bay Area a few miles south of San Francisco international airport).

Free live webcast at: http://www.techzulu.com/live.html
Follow the conference on Twitter: #Foresight2010

Abstract of my talk: Maximizing and Speeding Net Positive Impact of Emerging Technology: Ideas, Proposals and Projections for 2015, 2020 and 2030 (slight name change from what is on the program)

The challenge is to go beyond regular improvement and positively deflect global trends. What is the current state and trends of technology and the world economy ? What is the Business As Usual that we would want to surpass ? What are the examples of plans for deflecting current positive trends to higher values ? Where did historic GDP gains occur and where might increased future gains be realized ? What technology and innovation can have enough impact to move the needle ? Where would new technology and processes be applied to maximize change ? Based on what is known now what are the technologies that will be impacting 2015, 2020 and 2030 ? Where will things stand with artificial intelligence and nanotechnology ? What are the areas where we can maximize and accelerate what can be done with whatever level of AI and nanotech that we have in 2015, 2020 and 2030 ? If things develop more slowly what should we still do ? Which components of the technology portfolios could outperform and compensate for lagging segments ? AI and nanotech encompass portfolios of technology and can be impacted by underlying and related technologies. The array of future technological capabilities and ingredients will be very large and there are many ways to combine and mix them to achieve desired results.

Saturday, January 16, 2010
8:15 AM Registration and coffee
8:45 J Storrs Hall, Foresight Institute
"Introduction and Welcome: 20 years of Foresight"
09:00 Larry Millstein, Millen, White, Zelano & Branigan, PC
"Sequencing Single DNA Molecules"
09:45 Hod Lipson, Cornell University
"Adaptive and Self-Reflective Systems"
10:30 Break
10:45 Feynman Prize Presentation, Foresight Institute
to Oscar Custance, Masayuki Abe, Yoshiaki Sugimoto, and Robert Freitas Jr
11:00 Oscar Custance, National Institute for Materials Science, Japan
"Experimental Demonstrations of Mechanosynthesis"
11:45 Ralph Merkle, IMM, Nanofactory Collaboration
"Freitas' Mechanosynthetic Toolset"
12:30 Lunch
2:00 J Storrs Hall, Foresight Institute
"Roadmaps to Nanotech and AGI"
2:45 Kartik Gada, Reliance GP
"Uplifting One Billion People in Ten Years"
3:30 Break
4:00 Paul Saffo, Stanford University
"Profiles of the Future"
4:45 Brad Templeton, Foresight, EFF
"Revolutionizing Transportation with AI"
7:30 - 9:30 Senior Associate Reception
Free for Senior Associates and one guest. Register early -- maximum of 40 attendees!
Cost for non-Senior Associates and additional guests is $50 per person. (Guests may choose to have their fees applied toward Senior Associate dues.)
The reception will feature the first in-person debate between Robin Hanson and blogger Mencius Moldbug about futarchy, a subject on which fur has flown over the blogosphere.

Sunday, January 17, 2010
8:15 AM Registration and Coffee
8:45 Brian Wang, Next Big Future .com
"Timing Emergence and Convergence of High Impact Technologies"
09:30 Michael Anissimov, Singularity Institute for AI
"Don't Fear the Singularity, but Be Careful: Friendly AI Design"
10:15 Break
10:45 Robin Hanson, George Mason University
"Economics of Nanotech and AI"
11:30 David Friedman, Santa Clara University
"Economics of Nanotech and AI"
12:15 Lunch
2:00 Monica Anderson, Syntience
"A New Direction in AI Research"
2:45 Salim Ismail, Singularity University
"Preparing Humanity for Accelerating Technological Change"

Tracking the Avatar Number One Box Office Prediction

Avatar has grossed $1.42 billion worldwide and this total does not have all of last weekends totals for all foreign markets and no counts past Sunday for any foreign market.

Avatar added $15 million domestically since Monday through Wednesday and should have added $45+ million overseas. Another $5 million today and $15 million overseas. Avatar should have $1.44 billion by the end of today. In two more weeks, Avatar would likely break Titanics Worldwide box office total (although it could take some extra days to tally the foreign box office).

Titanic held weekly domestic totals above $30 million through week 9 and above $20 million through week 14. Dark Knight was under $30 million in week 5 and under $20 million in week 6.

If Avatar can hold as well as did between weeks 3 and week 4 into the later weeks then

Week 5 box office $64 million [Expect $68 million, but had long weekend]
Week 6 box office $50 million
Week 7 box office $40 million
Week 8 box office $30 million

Adding that to the total likely after today (Thursday another $5 million to end week 4) would be $450 million + 184 million or $634 million. Titanic would be passed at the end of week 7. The above weekly decline rate would target about $700 million domestically.

Titanic defied box office weekly declines by making more money in week 5 than it did in week 4 and then massively slowing its weekly declines.

If this weekend domestic numbers hold to about $40 million then that would indicate tracking to the $700 million target. If it held above $40 million then it would indicate Avatar was biasing towards Titanic like box office longevity. Avatar would likely then hold above $20 million past week 9 and towards week 15.

My adjusted estimate is $450 million domestically and $0.99 billion right now for 1.44 billion.

My guess going forward is another $250 million domestic and $800 million overseas.

UPDATE: After weekend up to $1.615 billion. Expect $85 million for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (foreign was not counted for Monday yet). For $1.7 billion by the end of week 5.

$350-360 million added in Week 5

Week 6 - $260 million est
Week 7 - $200 million est
Week 8 - $140 million est

For a $2.55 billion world target. Worst case seems to be now another $150 million domestic and $500 million overseas. For a $2.1 billion world total.

Dwave Discusses Building A Big Idea Company and Speculates on Super Intelligence

Dwave Systems is trying to build a quantum computer company.
There is controversy about whether Dwave has sufficient quantumness in their qubits. Most of Dwave System insights into making a company based on groundbreaking technology still applies regardless of whether Dwave technology succeeds. These insights would apply to molecular nanotechnology and artificial general intelligence.

Phase I (5 years)
Formed in 1999 to commercialize quantum computers
• Entered into research collaborations with many institutions
• Learned a lot on a budget
• Filed a lot of patents

Dwave's first business model was inadequate

First business model was helping existing academic QC (Quantum Computer) efforts in exchange for IP (Intellectual Property) presupposes those efforts will build QC in time frame relevant to investors

They (Academics) Won’t …..
* not motivated to
* not capable
* never have
* wrong culture

must create infrastructure internally - address current limitations to progress with superconducting quantum computing adopt practices of successful technology development startups identify and address issues currently limiting progress in field
- primarily technical/fundamental or organizational

Phase II (5 years)
• Chose a particular technical approach
• Pulled (almost) everything in under one roof
• Serious $$$ (order ~ $100M)
• Infrastructure building (fab), de-risking basic science

Phase III
• Selling current systems
• Operations plan built around sales revenue
• Need for sales & sales leader
• Cultural shift from inward focused PhD science & engineering to customer facing R&D
• Technology works: a double edged sword!

Dwave Speculates on SuperIntelligence

quantum algorithms exist for solving hard learning problems
… machines running these algorithms might be superior to any possible evolved brain
• Pattern matching
• Inference
• Deduction
• Scheduling
• Optimization

Why don’t we have super-intelligent machines already?
• No-one has figured out how to (“scalably”) generalize learning
• “Input!!!!”

iPhone 4G Rumors and Predictions

Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray has issued his predictions for the iPhone 4G / 2010.

1. 70% chance that Verizon will be offering the iPhone in 2010.
2. A battery that lasts longer than one day
3. built-in RFID (radio-frequency identification) technology, allowing them to make retail payments with a single swipe.

PCMag has some iPhone 4G rumors

* earlier-than-expected launch date (maybe April/May production with June/July Availability)
* 5 megapixel camera
* OLED screen
* a removable battery
* Overhauled App Store
* support for video chat

Russia financing Nanostructured Membranes for Water Treatment

Nanowerk reports that RUSNANO (russian nanotechnology initiative) is financing production of nanostructured membranes and separating modules for treating water.

The products to come from this project are membrane plating and membranous roll-fed modules that are used in the process of filtration and reverse osmosis. Participants in the project, which is estimated at 1.92 billion rubles, are RUSNANO, Vladipor, and an outside investor who will provide co-financing. RUSNANO will invest 350 million rubles in equity of the project company and provide it with a loan of 460 million rubles. (30 ruble to one USD. $65 million project.)

The project will be carried out in the city of Vladimir. The production facility is expected to be completed in 2012.

The project falls within the realm of nanotechnology because of the size of the pores of the membranes. Each membrane type has its own size and all lie in the range of one nm to 100 nm. Membranes hold all that is larger than the size of their pores.

Direct customers for products that emerge from the project are engineering companies that produce units for water purification and sewage treatment for end consumers. There are about 150 domestic and foreign companies working in Russia today that offer engineering services for delivery of membrane equipment, mostly for imported membranes.

Businesses in energy, machine building, chemicals, electronics (together 20 percent) pharmaceuticals and medicine (24 percent), and the food industry (20 percent) have the highest demand for membrane modules. In 2008 the market in Russia for membranes was $225 million; in 2017 it is expected to rise to $645 million. The market for membrane modules for ultrafiltration, nanofiltration, and reverse osmosis will reach more than $238 million, and average annual growth in the market from 2010 through 2017 will exceed 13 percent.

Tata Supermini Loadrunner Van for Less than $2000

The Tata Magic Iris has a five-seater miniature load-runner van for less than $2000.

* powered by a 611cc engine (0.6-litre)
* the diesel engine is capable of just 8.2kW or power (11 horsepower); in comparison, most ride-on mowers pump out at least 10.5kW.
* Max speed of 55 km/h
* 10-litre fuel tank
* due on sale in India late in 2010
* front seatbelts as standard
* Safety features include headlights and tail-lights

The Economist Argues Against Bubbles in China

The Economist magazine argues that similarities between China today and Japan in the 1980s may look ominous. But China’s boom is unlikely to give way to prolonged slump.

* James Chanos, a hedge-fund investor, says that China is “Dubai times 1,000, or worse
* Another hedge fund, Pivot Capital Management, argues that the chances of a hard landing, with a slump in capital spending and a banking crisis, are increasing.

The three main concerns about China
1. overvalued asset prices
2. overinvestment
3. excessive bank lending

1. Asset Prices

Chinese share prices are nowhere near as giddy as Japan’s were in the late 1980s. In 1989 Tokyo’s stockmarket had a price-earnings ratio of almost 70; today’s figure for Shanghai A shares is 28, well below its long-run average of 37. Granted, prices jumped by 80% last year, but markets in other large emerging economies went up even more: Brazil, India and Russia rose by an average of 120% in dollar terms. And Chinese profits have rebounded faster than those elsewhere. In the three months to November, industrial profits were 70% higher than a year before.

House Prices
Tao Wang, an economist at UBS, argues that average income to house prices is misleading. Chinese homebuyers do not have average incomes but come largely from the richest 20-30% of the urban population.

China's average income to home price ratio has gone down over the last decade.

Chinese homes carry much less debt than Japanese properties did 20 years ago. One-quarter of Chinese buyers pay cash. The average mortgage covers only about half of a property’s value. Owner-occupiers must make a minimum deposit of 20%, investors one of 40%. Chinese households’ total debt stands at only 35% of their disposable income, compared with 130% in Japan in 1990.

2. Overinvestment

Total fixed investment jumped to an estimated 47% of GDP last year—ten points more than in Japan at its peak. Chinese investment is certainly high: in most developed countries it accounts for around 20% of GDP. Per person capital stock in China is only about 5% of what America or Japan has. China does have excess capacity in some industries, such as steel and cement, but not across the whole economy.

Mr Chanos has drawn parallels between China and the huge misallocation of resources in the Soviet Union, arguing that China is heading the same way. The best measure of efficiency is total factor productivity (TFP), the increase in output not directly accounted for by extra inputs of capital and labour. If China were as wasteful as Mr Chanos contends, its TFP growth would be negative, as the Soviet Union’s was. Yet over the past two decades China has enjoyed the fastest growth in TFP of any country in the world.

3. Excessive Bank Lending

China's total credit jumped by more than 30% last year. Even assuming that this slows to less than 20% this year, as the government has hinted, total credit outstanding could hit 135% of GDP by December. The authorities are perturbed. This week they increased banks’ reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point. They have also raised the yield on central-bank bills.

Recent lending has been excessive; combined with overcapacity in some industries, it is likely to cause an increase in banks’ non-performing loans. Ms Wang calculates that if 20% of all new lending last year and another 10% of this year’s lending turned bad, this would create new bad loans equivalent to 5.5% of GDP by 2012, on top of 2% now. That is far from trivial, but well below the 40% of GDP that bad loans amounted to in the late 1990s.

Total government debt could be 50% of GDP. But that is well below the average ratio in rich countries, of around 90%. Moreover, the Chinese government owns lots of assets, for example shares of listed companies which are worth 35% of GDP.

Japan’s stockmarket and land-price bubbles in the early 1960s offer a better (and more cheerful) analogy to China than the 1980s bubble era does. Japan’s economy was poorer then, although relative to America its GDP per person was more than double China’s today, and its trend rate of growth was around 9%. According to HSBC, after the bubble burst in 1962-65, Japan’s annual growth rate dipped to just under 6%, but then quickly rebounded to 10% for much of the next decade.

Two important historical Japan lessons for China. First, it is better to let the exchange rate rise sooner and more gradually than to risk a much sharper appreciation later. Second, monetary policy should not be too slack.

China has 20-30 years of growth based on comparisons of current development with Japan.

January 13, 2010

Scale of the Haiti Earthquake Disaster

CNN reports that more than 100,000 are feared dead in the earthquake in Haiti

UPDATE [Jan 19, 2010]
The Irish Times reports the current estimate is 200,000 deaths

Asked about Haitian government statements that between 150,000 and 200,000 people died, Gen Ken Keen, the commander of US forces in Haiti, said: “I think the international community is looking at those figures, and I think that’s a start point. Clearly, this is a disaster of epic proportions . . .”

The Haitian government says three-quarters of the capital will have to be rebuilt. Seventy thousand Haitians have already been buried, and many thousands more are decomposing in the rubble.

About 1.5 million people are homeless. There is still massively inadequate medical care and risks of disease and deaths from looting and other violence.

Haiti has a population of just under 10 million and Port au Prince the devasted capital has a population of about 3 million.

If the 200,000 figure proves to be accurate that would be 2% of the population of Haiti killed in the earthquake and over 6% of the capital of Port au Prince.

The New York Post reports of fears of the Haiti death toll reach half a million (500,000).

Whole shantytowns had slid off the side of hilltops, and even the mightiest of buildings -- including several hospitals, the presidential palace and the United Nations headquarters -- had fallen like houses of cards

Officials said they feared it could rise to a staggering 500,000, although they cautioned those figures were highly speculative.

"I don't know," Preval told CNN when asked how many were killed.

Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive said he thought the total would "be in the range of hundreds of thousands dead."

The terrifying 7.0-magnitude quake sent millions of residents into the streets.

"We have a lot of people here that need help. They need food. They need water," said Vanessa Charlamagne, 27, who sat in a park with hundreds of others.

Corpses lined the streets, which were devoid of any signs of rescue work -- no wailing sirens or heavy equipment.

As many as 150 members of the 9,000-person strong UN peacekeeping mission were unaccounted for -- including the mission's chief, Hedi Annabi, who was presumed dead

If the UN peacekeeping force was representative of the death ratio then the earthquake had a 1.6%. If the UN peacekeepers were in stronger buildings and ten times safer then the 16% rate of the 500,000 death toll would make sense.

At least 1500 bodies are in the morgue and pickup trucks continue bring the dead.

In the shattered Haitian capital bodies could be seen buried under the rubble, lying by the side of streets, or piled into vehicles

Friday, Jan 15, 2010 - The Red Cross estimates that at least 50,000 people have died in earthquake ravaged Haiti.

Friday, Jan 15, 2010 - The Pan American Health Organization, the Americas arm of the World Health Organization, estimated the deaths from Tuesday's magnitude 7 quake at between 50,000 and 100,000, up to double the Red Cross's estimate.

The death toll from Haiti's earthquake climbed to as high as an estimated 100,000 today as logistical bottlenecks delayed aid and encouraged looting by survivors desperate for food and water.

Groups of men with machetes roved the ruins seeking supplies of food or water; others used corpses as roadblocks, a macabre sign that the capital had reached breaking point after four days of apocalyptic scenes.

Wikipedia has a list of earthquakes by death toll

List of deadly earthquakes since 1900 at wikipedia

Wireless Body Monitoring System

MediSens Wireless, a startup company in UCLA's on-campus technology incubator at the California NanoSystems Institute, has obtained approval under federal Food and Drug Administration guidelines to begin clinical trials on its novel wireless body-monitoring system, which assesses muscle and neuromotor functions in the upper extremities.

The system also has potential for in-home use to assess patient progress following neurotraumas and as a rehabilitative tool to expand the reach of telemedicine. In addition, CMAS could possibly be used to differentiate and help diagnose diseases states, such as Parkinson's disease, at an early stage with sensitive assessments of fine movements, according to Reggie Edgerton, Ph.D., a professor of neurophysiology at UCLA and co-inventor of CMAS.

The CMAS system consists of a clinical assessment device and associated software that will allow health care providers to capture current and ongoing muscle and neuromotor functions, thereby providing them with quantifiable, real-time data for their decision-making.

Clinical trials will establish the viability of CMAS. It is anticipated that the system will provide clinical assessments of fine motor movement, gross muscle strength, hand-eye coordination and patient response to treatment. Closely captured repeat assessments will lead to early warning and detection of deteriorating conditions.

CMAS (Clinical Movement Assessment System) CMAS consists of a clinical assessment instrument and associated software designed to help the healthcare professional to evaluate and capture current and ongoing muscle and neuro-motor functions.


As a therapeutic aid and exercise device, CMAS provides quantifiable exercise regimes and valuable biofeedback to help patient rehabilitation.
As a screening device, pre-surgical baselines can be compared to post-surgical outcomes
Functional baselines can be established for Head and Spinal Cord injury, and neurologically challenged patients; closely captured repeat assessments may lead to early warning and detection of deteriorating conditions
Movement disorders can be assessed and response to medication and treatment measured; pharmaceutical dosages can be readily adjusted

Target Patient Categories

Initial Screening
MI (Cardiac)
Head Trauma/ Spinal Cord Injury
TIA/Stroke- Cerebral Vascular Accident
Neuromuscular Movement Disorder
Orthopedic Trauma/Compartment Syndrome

ANOTHER MEDISENS PRODUCT - MCS: Medication Compliance System
Medication non-compliance is dangerous and costly. Non-compliance causes 125,000 deaths annually in the US. It leads to 10 to 25 percent of hospital and nursing home admissions, and is becoming an international epidemic.

Sending and receiving text messages helps to solve medication non-compliance problems. Whereas social support can improve coping, promote health, and alleviate isolation and loneliness, and informational, emotional, and affirmative support from peers promotes adherence, receiving a text message to alert the patient provides a much longer lasting effect on compliance.

Future Movies and Old Movies Will Be in 3D and Imax

The 3D version of Titanic will be released later in 2010.

Bobby Jaffe, the chairman Legend Films (3D movie conversion company) - 3D conversion mostly suits action films, such as Top Gun or The Matrix, but Avatar proved it’s best to use the technology to immerse the audience in the story rather than throw things at them. This is the new, more sophisticated era of 3-D.

University of Southern California reported that after seeing a 3-D film in the cinema in 2009, 40% of people would prefer to watch television in 3-D, too.

Times UK - Hollywood is preparing to re-release some past hits, including Star Wars and The Lord of the Rings trilogy, in 3-D following the record-breaking success of Avatar.

Studio executives are drawing up schedules of popular films that will be “retro-fitted” with 3-D technology after the science fiction blockbuster. Experts now predict that 3-D will become the new multiplex standard within five years.

Retro-fitting a screen classic with 3-D imagery could take as little as four months, using software to manipulate a digital copy of the film.

Last week technicians at Weta, the production company that had worked on the trilogy, said they had experimented with 3-D battle scenes and proclaimed them to be “gob-smacking”.

The Lord of the Rings is expected to be re-released after Jackson has finished producing the two-part version of JRR Tolkien’s The Hobbit over the next two years. This would mean that a 3-D version of The Fellowship of the Ring, the first part of the trilogy, could be in cinemas by Christmas 2012.

It may be beaten to the screen by a revamped version of Star Wars. George Lucas, the director, spent $13m filming the original in 1976, added special effects in 1997 and 2004, and will now spend another $10m to change it into a 3-D spectacular.

Wired has a list of movies that they would like to see getting a 3D upgrade. However, I think all action blockbusters will get remade into 3D and it will just be question of where the cutoff is for people being willing to make a trip to the theater to see a re-release.

The IMAX version of "Avatar" has pulled in more than $60 million at the box office, about 15% of the movie's overall $420 million take in the U.S. so far. Still, IMAX appears to have room to grow -- the IMAX version of "Avatar" plays on only 5% of the total screens showing the movie.

3-D TV coming soon to your living room, that's why more films may be made especially with IMAX in mind. So instead of making a movie and deciding to show it in 3-D on IMAX as an afterthought, IMAX technology will be part of the original vision and plan for the film.

"If you can create a spectacle, they will come, as we have no doubt seen with 'Avatar'," Bock said.

As of September 30, 2009, there were 403 IMAX theatres (280 commercial, 123 institutional) operating in 44 countries.

Imax already had expansion underway in Asia. The Canadian company has 20 theaters in China, and Don Savant, senior vp and managing director, Asia Pacific, said that by 2013, Imax would have more than 30 theaters in commercial multiplexes in China.

Expect a faster expansion of Imax theaters with double the current number or more by 2015.

Форма для связи


Email *

Message *