The rmb has actually risen by all of 5 percent against the dollar over the last year–doesn’t get the job done, because the dollar’s gone down against other currencies and there’s been virtually no change in the trade-weighted strength of the rmb. The countries we identify as being overvalued include some of those already at that time: Brazil in particular, Turkey, South Africa. And the countries undervalued as I say include the same suspects: Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan in addition to China, also to some extent Sweden and Switzerland. The authors’ calculations show the need for a slightly larger effective revaluation of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, this year (17.6 percent) than last (15.3 percent) and a larger appreciation of the renminbi in terms of the dollar (28.5 percent rather than 24.2 percent).
Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2011 (18 pages)
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