Global oil supply rose by 270 kb/d in May from 87.41 mb/d in April, with OPEC crude underpinning the rise. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2011 is now +560 kb/d, half of 2010 levels. Revisions to refinery processing gains cut 0.2 mb/d from 2008-2011 supply, and outages in the Americas, UK and Yemen shave another 0.2 mb/d off 2011.
OPEC May crude supply rose by 210 kb/d to average 29.18 mb/d, but remains 1.25 mb/d below pre-Libyan crisis levels. Increases from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait and Iraq offset lower UAE and Angolan output. Effective spare capacity stands at 4.01 mb/d. The 2011 ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is revised up by 0.4 mb/d to 30.1 mb/d, and increases by 1 mb/d between 2Q11 and 3Q11.