Petroleum Economist – Libya’s oil production should reach 750,000 barrels per day by the end of October and 1 million barrels per day by the end of 2011 according to leaked documents from the National Oil Corporation.

Arabian gulf oil (Agoco) is restarting production in the Sirte-basin oilfields of Nafura and Bayda in two weeks.

Financial Times – Nuri Berruien, chairman of the country’s National Oil Company, told the Associated Press news agency on Sunday that crude oil output has reached 390,000 barrels a day, nearly a quarter of Libya’s pre-war level of 1.6m b/d.

Mr Berruien, who previously said Libya could be pumping 1m b/d by the end of the first quarter of 2012, now sounds more optimistic.

Upbeat oil traders and consultants say Libya could achieve the key 1m b/d by the end of the year, nearly three months ahead of forecasts. Yet, Mr Berruien is sticking to his original – and cautious – forecast for the time being, that it will take 14-15 months for Libya’s oil production to return to pre-war level of 1.6m b/d.

The rapid re-start of the eastern fields should not be a surprise, even if it is coming a bit faster than previously expected. The situation at present amounts to Libya picking the low hanging fruit.

Its new oil chief is bringing on stream fields which suffered little from looting and whose export terminals – Marsa el Hariga and Zuetina – and main pipelines were unscathed by the war.

The central area and the Murzuq region will truly test the recovery of Libya’s oil industry.

A more conservative forecast is for Libyan oil production to top 600,000 barrels per day by the end of 2011.

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Brian Wang

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