December 15, 2011

IEA reports World Oil liquids supply at 90.0 million barrels per day in November

Global oil supply rose by 0.9 mb/d to 90.0 million barrels per day in November from October, driven by lower non‐OPEC supply outages. A yearly comparison shows similar growth, with OPEC supplies standing well above year‐ago levels. Non‐OPEC supply growth averages 0.1 mb/d for 2011 but rebounds to 1.0 mb/d in 2012, with strong gains expected from the Americas.

Updated medium‐term projections show global oil demand rising from
88.3 mb/d in 2010 to 95.0 mb/d in 2016, growth of 1.1 mb/d per year on
average. A stronger global liquids supply outlook now sees upstream capacity
attain 101.5 mb/d by 2016, average yearly growth of 1.3 mb/d, with the
outlook for Iraq, Libya and the Americas stronger than in June. Meanwhile,
global crude distillation capacity additions for 2010‐2016 are trimmed by
0.9 mb/d, but remain a substantial 8.7 mb/d.

OPEC crude oil supply in November rose to the highest level in more than
three years, up by 620 kb/d to 30.68 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia and Libya
accounting for 80% of the increase. OPEC ministers will meet on 14 December
in Vienna to review the market outlook. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock
change’ for 2012 stands at 30.2 mb/d, near recent OPEC output levels.

A more precarious economic backdrop and weaker 4Q11 data – particularly for
OECD Europe – curb oil demand projections for 2011 and 2012 by around
0.2 mb/d. Global oil demand is expected to average 89.0 mb/d by 2011, a rise of
0.7 mb/d on 2010, before gaining a further 1.3 mb/d in 2012 to reach 90.3 mb/d.

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