March 25, 2012

Kazatomprom produced 19,450 tons of uranium in 2011

According to the results of 2011, uranium production volume in the Republic of Kazakhstan made up 19,450 tU, which is 9% more than in 2010. In 2011, Kazakhstan maintained its position of the world's leading uranium producer – its share in the global uranium production made up 35% which is 55,400 tU, according to the preliminary data.

Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium "civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years" and "the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable". Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar

1. World Uranium production (I won in 2010, 2011)
2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018 (I won in 2010, lost 2009 and 2011)
3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan (I won 2010, 2011)

The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.

Brian Wang      Dittmar               Midpoint
2010   16500 tons      15000 tons            15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010
2011   18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons 19,450 tons in 2011

World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions
      Brian Wang  Dittmar            midpoint
2010  56000 tons  45,000 tons        50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 
2011  60000 tons  45,000             52,500 tons 55,400 tons estimate
2012  64000 tons  45,000             54,500 tons
2013  68000 tons  45,000             56,500 tons
2014  72000 tons  45,000             58,500 tons
2015  76000 tons  45,000             60,500 tons
2016  80000 tons  45,000             62,500 tons
2017  84000 tons  45,000             64,500 tons
2018  88000 tons  45,000             66,500 tons

The world nuclear generation bet is likely to be won by Dittmar due to Japan and Germany turning off operational reactors because of public fears after Fukushima. Other nuclear generating nations actually did quite well, so the actual miss on generation will not be that large.

Japan is talking about turning on some of their reactors again and will have power shortages this summer if they do not.

There are about 14 nuclear reactors getting started in 2012.

14 more nuclear reactors starting in 2013 and 19 nuclear reactors in 2014

I am expecting some of Japans reactors to get restarted in 2012 and most of the operating reactors to restart in 2013.

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