While it now looks as though Q2 real GDP growth will be weaker than Q1’s “disappointing” 8.1 pct, our proprietary leading indicators have turned upwards in the past couple of months. It is quite clear that Chinese financial conditions are starting to ease.
Brazil is certainly facing more genuine challenges in its effort to achieve the growth rate that satisfies our criteria for BRIC status. We are assuming Brazil will grow by a bit more than 5 pct this decade. It got offto a very good start by virtue of its exceptionally strong performance in 2010. However, the second half2011 and the first quarter of 2012 have clearly disappointed.
India was described as “the most disappointing of them all”.
Russia still has a lot of strength.
He also includes Mexico, Korea, Turkey and Indonesia in a Growth 8 group as the most important sources of global growth for the next decade.
Sustainability of Growth is calculated by the Growth Environment Score
The Growth Environment Score (GES) was introduced by Goldman Sachs in the same paper that identified the Next 11.
The GES consists of 13 sub-indices that fall under one of five categories of economic growth determinants:
o Macroeconomic stability – inflation, government deficit and external debt
o Macroeconomic conditions – investment and openness
o Technological capabilities – penetration of phones, PCs and internet
o Human capital – average years of secondary education and life expectancy
o Political conditions – political stability, rule of law and corruption