October 15, 2012

Singularity Summit - A Tsunami of Life #SS12

Robin Hanson talks about A tsunami of Life

Robin is detailing the scenario where there are many whole brain emulations.
He is using the conventional economics to work from the assumption to detail how that society would look. He does not look at intermediate situations and does not debate any other philosophical or ethical implications.

He is writing a book about this detailed scenario.
Some people could be troubled by aspects of it but he feels that people need to consider the whole situation.

These are the rough notes of a dense talk.

Economics of whole brain emulation
Need to emulate brains - uploads
Computers very parallel
Scan – fix slice 2d scan
Model each brain cell type
Emulation of the brain does the same as the original brain

Combine usual results in economics, brain science
Assume mostly opaque emulations
No merges, slices, partials
Next big eras, not eras after
Look first at
Low regulation competitive scenario
Post transition equilibrium
Use supply and demand

Generic BIG future
Better tech, org design
Bigger orgs and contracts
More specialization, niches
Better/cheaper music stories, art, gamnes
More unequal cities, firms, achievement
Robot implications
Immortality but can most afford
Travel transmit to a new body but is secure ?
Nature – do not need ecosystems to survive
Train once, use many, each job few sources
Population explosion, rapid growth, economy doubles monthly
Wages fall to near hardware cost
Only draconian global law can stop
Humans Eclipsed
Wages < human subsistence Except as direct demand eg sevants But rich if hold non-wage assets Wealth grows like small % of economy Less robot human war if integrate, share law We don’t kill retirees take their stuff EMS feel human Remember a human life, retain human styles Love, gossip, argue, sing, play, laugh Most EMS are of the few best suited humans Smart conscientious, workaholic First mover gains, few kids, uneven gender IF most from <300 humans a forager sociality Humans may not see EMS as conscious or me But same implications a few to copy is plenty EMS are different More alienated world as were farms and factories More work, less sleep, more inequality Loyalty tests via sims, shallow mind reading Leisure office work in virtual reality Less need for eat, clean, medicine More variety in physical bodies, mind speeds Hardware cost linear in speed to 10 milion times Human bosses often fail to coordinate 4 boss, 5 levels, 341 employees (21 higher bosses, There will be larger organizations Reaction time needs to match the size of the person 1.7 meteres, human speed 16 times faster, 10 cm tall (yr is22 days 256 – 6 mm tall, yr in 24 hours 4100 times _ 0.3 mm tall yr in 2 hours Million - Fast is high class high status. Faster world seems more static and more stable Liesure, better to do it at a faster speed City size limited now by congestion costs 16 times faster talking circle – 940 km 256 times faster 60 km 4100 times – 4 km, 0.4 mm height, year in 2 hrs 16 million times faster 1 meter, 100 nm height Friendship problems Make, retire team as unit Friends, lovers in team Avoid multi-copieson same team Inequality today (about 1 is even at different sizes, <1 most small, more than 1 more big) 2012 Firms A about 1 Product – a< 1 City, States A about 1 Family a about 2 Wealth a about 1.4 Max holds 0.02% 2070 Firm a about 1 Product a < 1 Most city staets a <1, most in 10 or less Family a < 1 most in 300 Wealth z about 1 (live long Max holds 3% Legal issues Is copy gift, loan stock or slave Limits risk black markets Clan as unit of law, regulation, finance, politics In Summary Standard economics in an unusual scenarios Fast boss, leisure, slow retire Robots, wages fall, economy grows fast If you cannot handle the rate of growth then that limits the growth If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

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