Global supply is estimated to have increased by 575 kb/d m-o-m in July, to 91.85 mb/d, led by higher non-OPEC production. Strong growth in North America is expected to lift 2H13 total non-OPEC supply by an average 1.4 mb/d y-o-y, to reach 55.4 mb/d in 4Q13.
Global refinery crude demand surged by 3.1 mb/d in June, its highest monthly increase on record, and likely rose further in July, ahead of autumn maintenance. At 77.2 mb/d, June runs were almost 2.0 mb/d above year-earlier levels. Global runs were pegged at 74.8 mb/d for 2Q13, rising to 77.3 mb/d in 3Q13.
Global oil demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 to 1.1 mb/d, compared with 0.9 mb/d in 2013. The forecast of demand growth for 2014 has been trimmed by 0.1 mb/d on reduced GDP expectations from the IMF, while that for 2013 is largely unchanged.
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