While trade has been and can be an important driver for the rise of the RMB as a reference currency, it cannot on its own ensure the eclipse of the dollar globally until the mid-2030s. However, if China reforms its financial and external sectors consistent with ensuring the rise of the RMB as the preeminent reserve currency within the next 10 to 15 years, that would also bring forward the date for the emergence of a global RMB currency bloc, eclipsing the dollar.
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