China with Hong Kong and Macau could have ended 2013 at US$10 trillion economy on exchange rate basis

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China’s GDP growth for 2013 was at 7.6%.

China’s currency is ending 2013 at 6.0539 to the US dollar The exchange rate at the end of 2012 was 6.31.

Official 2013 GDP will be reported in a couple of months, but if it comes in at about 58 trillion yuan then China’s economy will be about US$9.6 trillion. Including Hong Kong and Macau it would be US$10 trillion. China has 51.93 trillion yuan for its end of 2012 economy. The 7.6% growth and 2.8% inflation would give about 58 trillion yuan economy.

The USA probably ended 2013 with a GDP of about $17.1 trillion. The US was at 16.9 trillion at the end of the third quarter.

China’s government set a GDP growth target of 7.5% for 2014

Top leaders believe that maintaining the 7.5 percent target will help keep growth humming to create more jobs, while providing wiggle room to deepen reforms, government economists involved in the discussions about the plans said.

“Two camps who proposed growth target – 7 percent or 7.5 percent – made their points. But the government favors 7.5 percent,” said an economist at the State Information Centre, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Key economic targets for 2014 will be announced by the government during the annual parliament meeting in March

The government may also stick with this year’s 3.5 percent inflation target for 2014, but economists cautioned that price pressures could rise as China frees up energy and utility prices. Annual inflation in 2013 is seen at 2.6-2.7 percent, below the target.

With developed economies showing signs of sustained recovery, the government has more confidence in targeting steady economic growth next year, economists said.

The commerce ministry’s think thank forecast that China’s exports may grow at least 10 percent in 2014 thanks to improved global demand, especially from developed countries


Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY 


2011     47.2   9.2        6.3     
2012     53     8.0        6.2     
2013     59     7.6        6.05    
2014     66     7.5        5.8    
2015     73     7          5.5    
2016     80     6.5        5.2    
2017     88     6.5        5.0  
2018     97     6          4.8    
2019    107     6          4.6  
2020    115     6          4.3   
2021    125     5          4.1    
2022    135     5          3.9   
2023    145     5          3.7    
2024    157     5          3.5   
2025    170     5          3.3     
2026    183     5          3.1      
2027    198     5          3  
2028    214     5          3      
2029    235     5          3     
2030    259     5          3

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