May 31, 2014

Thorough and fairly complete third party data about China's Economy

Adapted from methodology used by the U.S. Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," The China Beige Book™ is an 80 page quarterly report that uses both quantitative and qualitative data to track real-time conditions within the Chinese economy, both regionally as well as within each of eight key industries within each region.

In addition to providing clients with real-time growth, employment, wage, and inflation data that is often months (if not quarters) ahead of lagging official data, the China Beige Book™ provides a uniquely granular window into China’s historically opaque credit environment. China Beige Book™ is the first analytical report to ever use country-wide, independently-collected data to track China's shadow banking universe, allowing it to break down the country's non-bank (unofficial) lending rates not just nationally or by region, but also for each sector and sub-sector within each region, as well as for other categories such as firm size or export/import concentration.

Their approach triangulates three methods, repeated every quarter:

1. a quantitative survey of over 2,000 leading firms from key sectors across the country;
2. qualitative one-on-one in-depth discussions with C-Suite executives in the same industries across every region;
3. a separate, targeted banker survey of loan officers and branch managers, designed to home in on the complexities of both the official and shadow economies.

With the data from this approach, they are able to compare regions and industries within a quarter, as well as track changes over time, both in near and real time.

Using this approach, China Beige Book™ has solved the most critical issues puzzling China watchers for decades: What is true cost of capital in the Chinese economy? How is it being accessed? And who or what are able to access it over time?

John Maudlin's email newletter (free subscription) has an excerpt of the 2014 first quarter China Beige Book.

There has been a slowdown in most of China except the West and Southwest but it is not a collapse.

Leland Miller, president at China Beige Book International, and Bill Janeway, senior advisor at Warburg Pincus, examine the strength of China’s economy as growth slows to 7.4 percent and the factors that may impede future growth on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

[Feb, 2014] CCTV's Shraysi Tandon asks Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International, for his taken on the prospects of Chinese markets in the Lunar New Year.

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