More than 8 million homes are already empty, and that number may reach 21.5 million by 2033, or about one-third of the nation’s housing stock, Nomura Research Institute forecasts.
Wooden houses account for more than 50 percent of the market and are worthless after 22 years, according to the National Tax Administration Agency. Concrete apartments depreciate to nothing after 47 years.
Tokyo is still growing but the countryside and smaller towns and cities are getting abandoned. There are efforts to force renovation or removal. About 10$ are being bought cheaply and renovated and resold. But the fundamental bad demographics (population dropping and getting very old) is locked in for the 20-30 years and likely beyond.
Percent vacant could go from 13% to 30% and the other figures are in thousands of total houses and total abandoned houses.