December 09, 2015

Taking over 5 years to recognize that my quantum computer prediction from 10 years ago was 100% right

Han Solo [Star Wars Force Awakens Trailer] - Its true. All of it.


On Long Now, I, Brian Wang of Nextbigfuture made the prediction

There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010

At the time, 78% of 700 IEEE fellow predicted that there would not be a commercial quantum computer within 50 years

Geordie Rose, CTO of Dwave told me the the $10 million Lockheed Martin sale of a 128 qubit system was done in Nov, 2010. My prediction was accurate. There has also been the articles in the journal Nature with proof of the quantumness of the 8 qubit cells.

There have now been dozens of articles proving that there are quantum resources used in the Dwave Quantum annealers.

The Long now moderators and commenters tended to be hung up on the speed up and the Shor Algorithm issue and the proof of quantumness for Dwave.

Quantum factoring was explained in a University of Cambridge talk in 2014

There is proof of quantum entanglement in Dwave systems



Now 100 million speedup is proved by Google

Google has announced that the 1000-2000 qubit Dwave systems can be 100 million times faster than single processor classical systems.

Dwave has quantum annealing factoring algorithm which is the basis for Shors algorithm and cryptography

Dwave has a factoring algorithm that Geordie Rose was going to do a series of blog posts on (the working title is “Better than Shor” :-) ). It’s scheduled to be the fourth in the series (binary classification, structured classification, unsupervised feature extraction, and then the factoring algorithm).

In a presentation, Dwave says they can perform integer factorization using quantum annealing and at ~12:10 they can produce a D-Wave machine (maybe as an NSA special order) that can factor 2n bit number with 2n^2 qubits.

Dwave now has 2000 qubit systems in the lab. This is 2 [33]^2. Thus they can now factor 66 bit numbers. 64 billion billion.

2013 Dwave system could factor 16 bit numbers









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