June 13, 2016

China's have not provinces are closing the gap with Shanghai and other richer regions

Despite a gradual moderation of China's national growth, the favorable news is that Chinese regions are converging (link is external). The chart below shows those regions that had relatively low per capita GDP in 2009 have grown significantly faster in the subsequent years than the more developed (mostly coastal) provinces.


13 of the 31 provinces or regions are above the national average and the rest are below Below is updated provincial per capita information. The chart above is based on 2009 currency.


On a nominal exchange rate basis and IMF projection
2016  $8866  [About the level of Turkey, 71st of 189 countries, about 15% of US per capita level]
2017  $9482 
2018  $10219 
2019  $11127 
2020  $11457
2021  $12543 [Past Turkey and Mexico, Nearing Lebanon and Hungary about 18.6% of US per capita level]

On a PPP per capita GDP basis
2016  $15095  [About 26% of US per capita level, 85th in the world]
2017  $16172 
2018  $17405
2019  $18752
2020  $20190 
2021  $21733  [about 32% of US level, 79th in the world] Overall China economy would 132% of the US economy on PPP basis






SOURCES - Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), IMF, China national statistics

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