200 PetaFLOPs by 2018
2 ExaFLOPS by 2022
20 ExaFLOPS by 2026
100 ExaFLOPs by 2030
* Silicon photonics will become primetime which will enable a big drop in the cost of bandwidth.
* lasers could be developed that were 100 times more efficient, new materials would be needed to lower overall power consumption
* newer architectures could evolve into a third tier of memory between RAM and storage.
* At the same as DRAM moves closer to the logic in a system and logic would move into memory.
A supercomputer of the 100 exaflops era could be a different kind of hybrid than we see today, with various kinds of specialized compute, possibly including quantum computing and neuromorphic computing, to augment the CPU, as far as Gara is concerned.
“The way I tend to look at this is that there are two paths,” he explained. “You can build a special-purpose device or you can augment traditional computing. And to me, the difference is really a power efficiency question. If you have got a device that when it is utilized that takes a lot more power than the rest of the compute, you sort have built a special purpose device that would not be very competitive as a general system because you would not want a system that would run at a tenth of the power when it is doing normal compute and only gets to use the full power when you are doing some special algorithm. My own feeling is that the way that this is going to play out is that these new techniques and new disruptive computing will come in as an augmentation to computing. And I think that is the most efficient way to get there, and there is going to need to be compromises to get there. And there are cultural and real technology challenges to put together very different technologies. But in the end, that is the way that I think we will go.”
SOURCES – Register UK, NextPlatform