October 20, 2016

2013 Arrest records and 2013 estimated racial statistics analysis

Nextbigfuture reader Goatguy has compiled the 2013 FBI ARREST records from their website, along with the 2013 estimated racial statistics of population of the United States for the closest (2010) year.

The results are … striking.
Read the “normalizations” at the top of the data block.
And the “notable observations” at the bottom.

REMEMBER - these are NOT the statistics of crime AGAINST a particular ethnic group, but statistics of the people arrested in suspicion of the crimes.

They are telling.



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  Table of normalized crime rate data, FBI, 2013 stats. The normalization of the data is first...
  to extract out hispanic numbers and adjust them for the FBI-state reporting agency accounting 
  (in which all reporting agencies do not necessarily track hispanic/latino ethnicities)
  
  Then to adjust the relative crime rate by race/ethnicity by their fraction of the total population
  of the United States, again by race. This is critical for FAIRLY assessing the relative proclivity
  of a race's members to commit each particular type of crime AND be arrested for it.
  
  It is unknown how much crime is committed that does NOT result in an arrest. Since the police investigative
  agencies typically do NOT pursue the 'rampant crimes' of the inner cities, the actual crime commit rate is
  likely much higher.  It would NOT be fair tho' to place the blame on any particular race beyond the
  proportionality implied by the attached table numbers.
  
  Or, more to the point, it is not very likely that members of ANY race or ethnicity are more EFFICIENTLY
  apprehended and arrested for criminal violations, the narrative of 'Black Lives Matter' activists
  and other race-fairness groups notwithstanding.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offense             race and population :  white    196817k  black    37685k hispanic 50477k  amerind    2247k   asian  14465k islander  481k
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aggravated assault                      :   101432   54.7%    98748  278.0%    81660  171.6%     4356  205.7%     4423   32.4%      412   90.9% 
all other offenses (except traffic)     :  1358589   81.9%   790854  248.9%   383266   90.1%    43953  232.0%    25090   20.6%     1187   29.3% 
arson                                   :     4961   93.0%     1925  188.6%     1237   90.5%      130  213.6%      107   27.3%        4   30.7% 
burglary                                :    91978   71.0%    61709  248.9%    45012  135.6%     1966  133.0%     2196   23.1%      228   72.1% 
curfew and loitering law violations     :    14533   47.9%    21351  367.3%    10474  134.5%      610  176.0%      630   28.2%       24   32.3% 
disorderly conduct                      :   193943   81.7%   129782  285.7%    37661   61.9%     7982  294.7%     2775   15.9%       59   10.2% 
driving under the influence             :   567221   97.7%   113928  102.5%   199219  133.8%    12575  189.8%    16831   39.5%      696   49.1% 
drug abuse violations                   :   592646   77.2%   365785  248.9%   222535  113.0%     9408  107.4%    12930   22.9%      858   45.7% 
drunkenness                             :   205732   90.5%    56885  130.8%    82414  141.4%     7399  285.2%     3550   21.3%      447   80.5% 
embezzlement                            :     6532   81.5%     4386  285.8%     1350   65.7%       87   95.1%      207   35.1%       12   61.3% 
forgery and counterfeiting              :    23972   77.4%    16375  276.1%     7236   91.1%      288   81.5%      677   29.7%       33   43.6% 
fraud                                   :    64714   89.9%    35958  260.9%     9968   54.0%     1145  139.3%     1094   20.7%       41   23.3% 
gambling                                :      917   28.5%     3362  544.9%      516   62.4%       27   73.4%      226   95.4%        7   88.9% 
larceny-theft                           :   559275   88.5%   284358  235.1%   117898   72.8%    16402  227.4%    12605   27.2%      398   25.8% 
liquor laws                             :   187196  105.8%    40665  120.1%    35005   77.2%    10861  537.9%     3672   28.2%       45   10.4% 
motor vehicle theft                     :    19502   58.5%    15960  250.0%    15362  179.6%      685  179.9%      725   29.6%       73   89.6% 
murder and nonnegligent manslaughter    :     1829   34.2%     4379  428.0%     1970  143.7%       98  160.6%      101   25.7%        6   45.9% 
offenses against the family and children:    46319   92.6%    25519  266.4%     4698   36.6%     1414  247.6%      511   13.9%        4    3.3% 
other assaults                          :   450058   80.1%   283357  263.5%   123488   85.7%    14041  219.0%     9717   23.5%      425   31.0% 
property crime                          :   675715   84.5%   363952  237.6%   179510   87.5%    19183  210.1%    15633   26.6%      703   36.0% 
prostitution and commercialized vice    :    15548   58.1%    17378  339.4%     7118  103.8%      386  126.4%     1492   75.9%       24   36.7% 
rape                                    :     5190   60.2%     4229  256.4%     3756  170.0%      160  162.7%      173   27.3%        7   33.2% 
robbery                                 :    17063   34.1%    44271  461.8%    15882  123.7%      579  101.3%      649   17.6%       94   76.8% 
sex offenses (except rape and prostituti:    22337   75.3%    11462  201.7%    11358  149.2%      622  183.6%      744   34.1%       30   41.4% 
stolen property; buying receiving posses:    31529   66.4%    22687  249.3%    18708  153.5%      684  126.1%      862   24.7%       71   61.1% 
suspicion                               :      488   92.8%      303  300.9%       11    8.2%       12  199.9%       11   28.5%        0    0.0% 
vagrancy                                :    10496   77.1%     6802  261.0%     3236   92.7%      581  373.8%      222   22.2%       17   51.1% 
vandalism                               :    85427   83.2%    42566  216.5%    28415  107.9%     2951  251.7%     1638   21.7%       81   32.3% 
violent crime                           :   125512   50.3%   151627  317.3%   103270  161.4%     5193  182.3%     5346   29.1%      519   85.1% 
weapons; carrying possessing etc.       :    36698   51.3%    44671  326.1%    28619  156.0%      888  108.7%     1251   23.8%      101   57.8% 
total                                   :  4716111   82.1%  2549655  231.7%  1498086  101.6%   140290  213.8%   105109   24.9%     5384   38.3% 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Some things of interest:
  
  Whites (at 82%, slightly below average)
  ... appear NEARLY LEVEL in 'crime commiting proclivity' across the board of crimes except for
  ... AGGRAVATED ASSAULT (low)
  ... CURFEW (low)
  ... GAMBLING (very low)
  ... MURDER (low)
  ... PROSTITUTION (low)
  ... ROBBERY (very low)
  ... VIOLENT CRIME (low)
  and WEAPONS VIOLATIONS (low)
  
  Blacks
  ... Appear uniformly MUCH HIGHER (2.3x) than average in 'crime committing proclivity', but notably
  ... GAMBLING (very high)
  ... CURFEW (high)
  ... DUI (average)
  ... DRUNKENNESS (slightly above average)
  ... MURDER (very high)
  ... ROBBERY (very high)
  ... PROSTITUTION (high)
  ... WEAPONS (high)
  
  (note that these are RELATIVE to their already high average)
  
  Hispanics
  ... Appear 'ABOUT AVERAGE' overall, with notable proclivity variances
  ... ASSAULT (high)
  ... BURGLARY (elevated)
  ... CURFEW (elevated)
  ... DISORDERLY CONDUCT (low)
  ... DUI (elevated)
  ... DRUNKENESS (elevated)
  ... VEHICLE THEFT (high)
  ... just look at the table.  Variations abound
  ...
  American Natives
  ... The statistics are 'much above average' (200%) in general, with notable proclivities in...
  ... ASSAULT, ARSON, BURGLARY, CURFEW, DISORDERLY CONDUCT, DUI, DRUNKENNESS, FRAUD
  ... LARCENY, VEHICLE THEFT, MURDER, ASSAULTS, PROPERTY DAMAGE, RAPE, SEX OFFENSES, VAGRANCY, VANDALISM
  
  ... and a very large (538%) proclivity for violating LIQUOR LAWS
  
  Asians
  ... are STRIKINGLY low (1/4 of average) in criminal-arrest proclivity across the board, with 
  ... GAMBLING (near normal)
  ... PROSTITUTION (below normal)
  
  Pacific Islanders
  ... are also STRIKINGLY low (1/3 of average) in criminal-arrest proclivity across the board 
  ... a bit raised above Asians in general, but few statistically important variations






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