January 20, 2017

Tesla production could hit 183,000 cars in 2018 as electric cars start going prime time hitting 15-25% of all cars by 2025

Morgan Stanley said it has increased its expectations for the Tesla Model 3, now saying the launch will take place later this year, and raised its sales forecast for Teslas overall to 183,000 in 2018 from its previous target of 114,000, although this is still 64% lower than the company’s 500,000 ambition for 2018. Morgan Stanley’s overall volume projection for 2020 is about two thirds less than Tesla’s 1 million. It doesn’t expect net profitability under U.S. GAAP rules before 2019 and free cash flow generation until very late 2018.

Tesla’s Model 3, base price close to $30,000 but probably averaging closer to $45,000, will go on sale by the end of 2017, and is charged with being a big volume success for Tesla, and its first serious profit generator.

Morgan Stanley said electric cars are now getting ready for prime time.

“EVs are no longer just a trend, they are a core strategy for (manufacturers) to address both increasingly stringent regulator targets,” the bank said.

Late last year Morgan Stanley raised its estimate for battery-only global electric car sales to between 10 and 15% of the global market by 2025. That was more than three times higher than the average of current expectations then. Volkswagen expects this to hit 25%. Currently global market share is an almost invisible less than 2%.







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