Electron spin quantum computing breakthrough Burkard says electron-spin qubits could now rapidly catch up with more established methods of quantum computing. “I see no roadblocks to moving towards the first implementation of small quantum algorithms using electron-spin qubits,” he says.
Original background information on my quantum computing predictions Also, has a link to the 2004 quantum computing roadmap.
My predictions article from early 2006.
Quantum computing 100 qubits 2010-2014
Quantum computing 1000 qubits 2015-2020
I am now more optimistic. 100 qubits could happen as soon as 2007. [Now it appears to be 2008 for over 100 qubits. The company is targeting 1024 qubits]
Maybe 1000 qubits by 2009-2012. Could scale up to lot more with three to five competing technologies. (superconductors, ion traps, electron spin, electron bubble and one of the dark horse tech – solid state, optical, cavity QED, neutral atom, nuclear magnetic resonance). Plus spending $200+ million for a super quantum computer with tens of thousands or millions of qubits is conceivable if it were just a matter of building them and there were no technical limitations.
More details on the patents for the dwave superconducting computer A series of josephson junction loops (multi-junction phase). Based on funding and progress I am thinking 32-40 qubits when they release, with the potential for hundreds and thousands of qubits. [They released a 16 qubit demo, although a 32 qubit upgraded demo is expected before the end of 2007]
adiabatic quantum computer
superconducting quantum computer
electron spin qubits
Ovonic Quantum control device
Ovonic Quantum control
thin film computers