China, Taiwan and US relations will improve in 2008

Wired has an analysis of what would happen in a war between the United States and China in space.

I think the analysis is meaningless because I do not believe that the United States and China would go to war. Both countries are prospering under the current world system and world order. The Wired analysis speculates about the trigger for a war being Taiwan. However, if the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou win the election January 12 and March 22, then relations with China will improve and the risk of war over Taiwan will become virtually non-existent. I predict that the KMT and Ma will both win their elections. I could only imagine their loss if there was massive vote rigging or if enough Taiwanese voters were tricked by another DPP stunt.

There is a legislative election going on right now in Taiwan (Jan 12, 2008)

Some expect the KMT to win 70 seats [out of 113 seats] in a landslide.

Taiwan’s presidential election is set for March 22, 2008

The opposition Kuomintang, which favors closer mainland links, aims to retain control of parliament as a springboard to winning the presidency in March from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party. Ma Ying-jeou, the opposition’s presidential candidate, has pledged to raise growth and cut unemployment by easing trade and investment restrictions with the mainland.

`Most Taiwanese want better ties with China, and Saturday’s vote, if the KMT takes more seats as expected, could indicate a rejection of confrontational policies,’ said Yang Tai-shuenn, a political professor at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei.

By the end of 2008, China’s economy (plus Macua and Hong Kong) will over ten times larger than the Taiwan economy. Similar to the ratio of China’s economy to Hong Kong back in 1997 and the current ratio of Canada’s economy relative to the United States.

I would predict that China’s yuan to be between 6.4 and 6.7 at the end of 2008. China’s economy would be about 26.2 trillion yuan at the end of 2008. China+Hong Kong + Macau combined GDP would be about 4.2 to 4.3 trillion US dollars vs 400 to 410 billion for Taiwan. With Chinese currency appreciation in the 9-12% per year range by 2014-2017 chinese per capita income could be in the range of half of Taiwan’s. China’s economy at that time would be very near the size of the US economy on an exchange rate basis.

There is no reason for China to go to war to fight for what they can soon buy.

Voters will also decide on two referenda: whether the KMT should give back assets gained in the more than five decades it governed Taiwan, and an opposition-proposed vote on wiping out official corruption.

The campaign has been marked by corruption charges and trials affecting both parties. Chen’s wife, Wu Shu-chen, is on trial for embezzlement, forgery and misuse of funds, and prosecutors said they have enough evidence to charge the president on similar grounds if not for his presidential immunity. Both have denied the charges.

Chen’s son-in-law, Chao Chien-ming, is on trial for insider trading after the Supreme Court last month revoked a conviction and asked the High Court to reconsider the case.

`President Chen has vowed to strive for Taiwan’s economy, but in fact he has been striving only for his family’s economy,’ Ma told supporters at a rally in southern Taiwan on Jan. 6.

Ma himself also faces corruption charges, with prosecutors on Jan. 9 appealing his Dec. 28 acquittal on charges he misused government funds while mayor of Taipei.

China’s currency is appreciating and as of Jan 11, 2008 it is 7.25 yuan to 1 US dollar.

The US subprime problems and possible recession in 2008 will not slow China’s economic growth by much.

This is because China’s economy is not as dependent upon exports as many believe it to be.

From the Economist magazine:

The value added share of exports is less than 10% of manufactured exports. China’s economy is driven not by exports but by investment, which accounts for over 40% of GDP.

This raises an additional concern: that weaker exports could lead to a sharp drop in investment because exporters would need to add less capacity. But Arthur Kroeber at Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm, argues that investment is not as closely tied to exports as is often assumed: over half of all investment is in infrastructure and property. Mr Kroeber estimates that only 7% of total investment is directly linked to export production. Adding in the capital spending of local firms that produce inputs sold to exporters, he reckons that a still-modest 14% of investment is dependent on exports. Total investment is unlikely to collapse while investment in infrastructure and residential construction remains firm.

Dragonomics forecasts that in 2008 the contribution of net exports to China’s growth will shrink by half. If the impact on investment is also included, GDP growth will slow to about 10% from 11.5% in 2007. This is hardly catastrophic. Indeed, given Beijing’s worries about the economy overheating, it would be welcome.

Public trust in Chen fell to 29 percent in December, according to data by the Taipei-based Global Views Survey Research Center. Support for his DPP was 29.5 percent, compared with 48.6 percent for the KMT, Global Views said. The KMT wants to win over 60 seats while the DPP says it aims to get 50.

Apparently resigned to an election loss today, Democratic Progressive Party standard-bearer Frank Hsieh holds President Chen Shui-bian responsible and wants him to quit calling the shots in the 2008 campaign.

Hsieh did not openly call on President Chen to resign as chairman of the ruling party, but noted Wu Po-hsiung has vowed to step down as Kuomintang chairman, if the DPP wins 50 seats in the new Legislative Yuan.

“Wu wants to take responsibility for a Kuomintang loss,” Hsieh said, suggesting that Chen should follow suit if he fails to achieve the 50-seat target he has set for the ruling party going into the elections.

3 thoughts on “China, Taiwan and US relations will improve in 2008”

  1. Normally the papers cost money to acquire, however American Antigravity owner was at this year’s STAIF so he has many interviews with the presenters and write-ups, as well as a few recordings of the presentations. So got to
    and look at the video clip section and feature articles for the last 3-4 days and you should find most of the material.

    Also this is probably the best write-up because it includes small descriptions on each of the presentations(related to gravity and energy research):

    Hope this helps!

  2. Is there an online source for viewing the STAIF 2007 papers ?

    In terms of using metamaterials to enhance energy capture, we have to be able to do it in a cost effective way. This (cost effectiveness) could be an issue now as we learn to make metamaterials and where using them is at the edge of our knowledge. In should not be an issue as we transition to better nanoscale control and molecular nanotechnology.

    I would like to see more solid proof of gravity control/shielding and for vacuum energy. Clever uses of more mundane non-controversial physics (laser mirrors) are more easily projected.

  3. BTW, Brian have you had a chance to check out the STAIF 2007 papers? A lot of breakthrough research is being conducted behind the scenes! China is on track to be the first to harness the power of HFGWs(High Frequency Gravity Waves)for propulsion, communication, and energy production.

    You may also want to check out the work of Dr. Fabrizio Pinto who is currently working on nanotechnology to exploit the vacuum.

  4. The use of metamaterials for energy production seems to be a shoe in! I was wondering if it would be possible to create a metamaterial that bends almost all ambient energy including Terahertz… something like that could really help the worlds energy supply.

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