Here is another update to my March 2006 technology predictions.
Prediction: Real-time biomarker tracking and monitoring 2008-2012
Progress: Cheap less than $100 USB gene tester
Old mockup of the cheap gene tester. The device is now much smaller than size of a shoe-box (USB stick size) with the optics and supporting electronics filling the space around the microchip.
Prediction: Real-time personalized disease treatment 2008-2012
Progress: The above gene tester can be used to test within minutes for adverse drug reactions which are a major problem in health care. By running a quick genetic test on a cancer patient, for example, doctors might pinpoint the type of cancer and determine the best drug and correct dosage for the individual.
Prediction: 80-200mpg cars – mainstream, batteries, ultracapacitors 5-10 times better 2008-2012
EEStor ultracapacitor expected for mid-2008 and will be used in Zenn Motors electric and hybrid cars
Prediction: Customized cells 2010-2014
Progress: Synthetic life- custom cell with completely synthesized DNA likely in 2008.
A 582,970 base pair sequence of DNA has been synthesized.
Prediction: Gecko mimicing wallcrawling suits for military and enthusiasts 2008-2012
Prediction: Wireless superbroadband (50-1000Mbps) 2009-2012
Progress:
List of deployed wimax networkks
Whitespace modems continue to be tested and could provide 50-100Mbps or faster speed
Prediction: Fiber to the home (100Mbps-1000Mbps) 2010-2015
Progress: Various groups in the USA are pushing for national broadband policy to be passed in 2008 to encourage 100Mbps or faster connections Japan has 93.7 Mbps average download speeds in October 2007.
Fiber to the premises deployment history by country at wikipedia
Prediction: Advanced plastic circuits, computing, monitors and energy gathering-walls, roofs, desktops 2009-2012
Progress: Printable electronics catching up to speed of CMOS electronics. Several of the technologies are suitable for printing electronic displays in a method similar in speed and cost to how newspapers are made now. (reel to reel printing of large areas)
Prediction: One billion digital video cameras posting online realtime; personal privacy is history 2008-2012
Progress: Over 1.24 billion cellphones will be shipped in 2008. Over 1 billion of those will be camera phones. As of Q2 2007, there are over 131 million UMTS users (and hence potential videophone users), on 134 networks in 59 countries. Camcorder sales are 4.5 million to 5.8 million per year in the United States Camcorders, are under 100 million total shipped as of 2007 The key to this prediction is if most new cellphones shift over to videophones. As over one billion cellphones will ship in 2009.
Prediction: 10 petaflop computer 2012-2013
Turek said IBM’s goal was 10 petaflops by 2011 and 20 petaflops by 2017. The Japanese have announced their intent to reach 10 petaflops by 2012.
The Sun Constellation compute speed is estimated at 1.7 petaflops, and it will store up to 10 petabytes of data.
Prediction: Optical interconnects connect CPUs directly at 100 Gbps+ 2012-2018
Progress: IBM reveals core-to-core optical dream in progress.
IBM researchers have created a modulator that’s one hundred to a thousand times smaller than other prior modulators and is theoretically capable of using light pulses to transmit data between cores, rather than relying on traditional wires. Chip-level optical routing would allow cores to communicate much faster than even the best wired connection (IBM estimates its nanophotonic technology would be 100 times faster) and would almost certainly eliminate any bandwidth-related bottlenecks within a single core.
Prediction: DNA nanotechnology creates nanotools and parts 2010-2015
Progress: Synthetic biology is making DNA for mechanical and electronic purposes DNA to assemble millions of three dimensional nanoparticles, and all molecular programmable DNA construction.
Progress: Two artificial DNA “letters” that are accurately and efficiently replicated by a natural enzyme have been created by US researchers. Adding the two artificial building blocks to the four that naturally comprise DNA could allow wildly different kinds of genetic engineering, they say. This combines with the previous articles about using DNA to assemble millions of three dimensional nanoparticles, being able to synthesize strings of DNA over 500,000 base pairs long and all molecular programmable DNA construction.
Prediction: Protein engineering creates artificial ribosome 2014-2022
Progress: A 582,970 base pair sequence of DNA has been synthesized. This is twenty times longer than the previous record DNA synthesis of one strand. A ribosome has 2.3 million base pairs.
Prediction: High resolution direct visual feeds to retina, able to fool viewer for short periods of time 2012-2020
Displays on contact lens and on glasses that project into the eye.
Prediction: Superconducting engines on ships and planes, less than 1/3 the weight
2012-2020
Progress: All-Electric Ship Could Begin to Take Shape By 2012
Comparison of superconducting engine to regular engine
Prediction: Magnetic rail guns, with over 20 times the speed and power of
conventional guns 2013-2018
Progress: Railgun on track for 2012 deployment trials on US warships. The railgun program’s goal is to demonstrate a full capability, integrated railgun prototype by 2016-2018. a 10.6 Megajoule shot reached a speed of 5,673 mph.
Prediction: Military lasers on fighters, ships and tanks able to destroy other
vehicles 2012-2018
Progress:
100kw solid state lasers being assembled in 2007
Prediction: Breakthrough in handling or reducing long term waste from nuclear
fission – makes nuclear fission “clean” 2010+
Fissile fuel burnup of at least 50% should be achievable with adequate design of the Hyperion Power Generation uranium hydride reactor. 50 times less nuclear waste would be left over. This reactor could be ready 2012 and appears to be funded.
Prediction: Develop useful power generation from forms of nuclear fusion 2020+
Progress: Bussard’s inertial electrostatic confinement fusion WB-7 prototype activated 2008. EMC2 Fusion has built an upgraded model of Bussard’s last experimental plasma containment device, which was known as WB-6. This work is very important because we could have commercial fusion in as little as 5 years if the work is successful.
Prediction: Develop useful space propulsion from nuclear fusion 2015+
Progress: If the Bussard inertial electrostatic confinement fusion is successful, then it would make it 40 to 1000 times cheaper to get into space.
Prediction: Cellular life found on Mars 2010
Progress:
New Analysis of Viking Mission Results Indicates Presence of Life on Mars. Phoenix mission in May 2008, could help to resolve some of these issues.
Gartner Predictions [not my predictions, but a couple overlap with what I believe]:
Gartner, Inc. has highlighted 10 key predictions of events and developments that will affect IT and business in 2008 and beyond. Here I list a few that I found interesting and in general agree with.
Through 2011, the number of 3-D printers in homes and businesses will grow 100-fold over 2006 levels. Printers priced less than $10,000 have been announced for 2008, opening up the personal and hobbyist markets.
I have been following the rapid prototyping and rapid manufacturing industry for several years. I have noted the falling prices, increasing capabilty and increasing popularity of the various 3D printers back in October 2007
The Desktop Factory 3D printer $4995 will be available in 2008. Their goal by 2011 is to have their 3D printer below $1000.
1. sales of hundreds of units in 2008 to a plan of 3500 in 2009.
2. In 2010, a price point of roughly $2,000 and somewhere between 20,000 – 30,000 units.
3. In 2011, with a price below $1000 and enter the consumer space. They believe they will sell over a 100,000 units a year
By 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in Computers. Apple’s gains in computer market share reflect as much on the failures of the rest of the industry as on Apple’s success.
I had covered the likely increase in Apple’s market share January 2008
By 2012, 80 per cent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology
By 2011, early technology adopters will forgo capital expenditures and instead purchase 40 per cent of their IT infrastructure as a service.
By 2010, 75 per cent of organisations will use full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory PC hardware buying criteria.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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