As Mr Miyagi said in Karate Kid.. If do right, no can defence
The U.S. Navy can’t stop China’s most sophisticated anti-ship missile (purchased from Russia) — and won’t even start testing a defense until 2014. I don’t think it is an issue between China and the USA because I do not believe they will be fighting. More relevant is if Iran gets the missile. Then it would be important for the USA to use spies, satellites and other means to find any missiles and destroy them before putting the navy within range. If Iran got it then it would change the tactics in any Iran/USA war. A war over Taiwan is not in the offing as the Taiwan presidential and legislative election has placed pro-Chinese politicians in Taiwan. They are going to moving to a common market. If Taiwan and China move to a European Union type situation then there will not be war.
It was pointed out to me that the US tactics would not be that greatly effected.
1) Pound them using air force. Air craft carriers are used because US does not have enough landbased friends. B52’s do most of the damage. Navy is for precision attacks. In the Iran case, airforce from Iraq, Afganistan, Dubai, and Suadi would mash them into stone age.
2) Drive army in from a friend. In this case, Iraq and Afganistan. [if wanting a land assault which the US probably does not except for some kind of smash and dash]
3) Navy would sit well offshore and cheer them on.
However, the US military pumping up its enemies would get the Admirals desired project or pet weapon system funded.
The Sizzler starts at subsonic speeds. Within 10 nautical miles of its target, a rocket-propelled warhead separates and accelerates to three times the speed of sound, flying no more than 10 meters (33 feet) above sea level. On final approach, the missile ‘has the potential to perform very high defensive maneuvers,’ including sharp-angled dodges, the Office of Naval Intelligence said in a manual on worldwide maritime threats.
The U.S. Navy, after nearly six years of warnings from Pentagon testers, still lacks a plan for defending aircraft carriers against a supersonic Russian-built missile, according to current and former officials and Defense Department documents.
Air power australia has photos of the Sizzler supersonic missile
The missile, known in the West as the “Sizzler,” has been deployed by China and may be purchased by Iran.
The Defense Department’s weapons-testing office judges the threat so serious that its director, Charles McQueary, warned the Pentagon’s chief weapons-buyer in a memo that he would move to stall production of multibillion-dollar ship and missile programs until the issue was addressed.
“This is a carrier-destroying weapon,” said Orville Hanson, who evaluated weapons systems for 38 years with the Navy. “That’s its purpose.”
China’s off the shelf air defense
Sino defence forum discusses the Sizzler missile and the Sunburn (supersonic all the time)
The Sizzler is smaller in size and lighter. I think the main difference is that the sunburn travels at supersonic speeds all the time, therefore requiering a big load of fuel, wich in turn makes the missile big and heavy. The Sizzler cruises at subsonic speeds and goes supersonic in terminal phase. But there are different versions of the “Club” some are “conventional” subsonic CMs over the entire flight. The Sizzlers range is longer than the Sunburn’s.
And I think the Sizzlers also have the capability of interoperability. Meaning they can exchange info. One “lead” missiles flies at high altitude searching for targets with it’s radar, while the other missiles of a barrage stay low and recieve info from the lead-missile.
Sino Defence has info on the missile
For political reasons, China may get small indigenous air craft carriers around 2013 (not nuclear powered, competitive with non-USA aircraft carriers other than the expected future French aircraft carrier
Here is a more complete list of arsenal of China’s navy.
3M-54E (SS-N-27) Anti-Ship Cruise Missile
Sunburn 3M-80E (SS-N-22) Ship-to-ship Missile
The purchase of the 3M-54E1 with 300 kilometer (180 mile) range back in 2005
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6 thoughts on “China and Iran are following Mr Miyagi’s advice with new anti-ship missile”
I wrote a paper in a Taiwanese journal in 2008 and the point is baisc the same with you. Amazing.
The vise-president of World Bank, Lin Yifu, has also made a comment that Chinese GDP may be 2.5 times larger than the US in 2030, and that means the size of US and EU (even plus Japan) combined.
China could surpass Japan this year. As you said, prople may start to think the scenario more seriously.
Sol Pao in Taiwan
Thanks for the subscription. I refer back to this post fairly often in my writing on China.
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I have updated this article
Where it seems if anything the processes are accelerating. (2018-2019)
The biggest risks to the projection
1. China’s leaders screw things up big time
2. Corruption and pollution in China get out of hand. They are problems now and they are trying to improve things but if water and agriculture got messed up to the point that the system got messed up, then it tough to be productive when you are starving or thirsty
3. The US fixes its budgets and goes back to a strong currency policy. US backsliding with a weak currency is accelerating this trend. The US dollar has dropped in half against the Euro over the past 6 years.
4. Big World wide problems (wars, oil shortages etc…)
5. Big pandemic that hits China
6. US economic growth accelerates. The US is tougher to pass if the US economy starts growing at 6%+. This would involve US leaders getting policy right and for some of technology that I talk about having major impact. China is catching up so quick that this has to happen right away and for China to be slow on adopting whatever the new thing is.
7. China’s economy has trouble adapting to a strong currency and with moving up market and with generating its own innovations.
China seems to be doing ok with those adaptations
Passing Japan in 2009-2010 will also start the discussion in a bigger way (China #2 then). When the yuan goes lower than 4.5:1 against the US dollar and if growth is still above 8% per year in 2011-2013 then a lot more people will recognize that an economic pass will be imminent.
Really surprised no one else has commented on this great post. This is going to be the first blog I subscribe to. What are the biggest risks to your projections? Is there anything you would modify? Sorry to bring you back to such an old post.
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