World cement usage in 2008 is 2.8 billion tons and is forecast to be 3.5 billion tons in 2012 China is using 1.3 billion tons in 2008 about 45% of the world total.
The cement usage is mainly driven by the fact that China is adding a one to one and half Los Angeles worth of city every year.
1.5%- 2% population migration from rural areas to small and large cities.
20 million to 30 million people into cities.
Building apartments, houses, roads, rail, airports, offices and factories.
China aims to increase its operational railway lines from 75,438 km in
2005 to more than 90,000 km by 2010. So adding about 3000 km of rail per year.
Cement used for NYC subway was about 8000 cubic yards per mile. 11,260 tons per mile. (1.42 tons per cubic yard)
China has about 34,000 km of highways (2006), a number that’s expected to more than double by 2020.
About 13 million tons of cement is needed per 100,000 km of rural road. [33 pounds of cement per square yard of road, 7 yards wide, 1760 yards per mile = 203 tons per mile or 127 tons per km]
Some 270,000 km of rural highways will be built and upgraded in 2008. By comparison, 423,000 km of countryside highways were built or upgraded in 2007, a record high. So about 35 million tons of cement in 2008 and 60 million tons of cement in 2007.
New construction will advance at a nine percent annual rate in real terms through 2011, continuing to outpace improvements and repairs. This trend will sustain through the next decade as China continues a high pace of economic development and industrialization. New construction also dwarfs improvements and repairs in size, accounting for over three-quarters of all construction expenditures in 2011.
China is building the equivalent of a 3 gorges dam every 2 years. They are putting dams on many other rivers. But the dam only used 10.8 million tons of cement. Less than 1% of one year’s demand.
Construction expenditures in China are forecast to increase 8.8 percent annually through 2011 to ¥6.4 trillion in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. An ever expanding domestic economy, continuing endeavors to upgrade infrastructure, sustained strength in foreign investment funding, healthy demand for Chinese manufactured goods, and
further population and household growth will all work to drive construction market gains in China.
Nonbuilding construction expenditures will climb ten percent annually in real terms through 2011, fueled primarily by the government’s efforts to modernize and expand China’s physical infrastructure. These efforts include plans to upgrade the nation’s rail system, to expand the national highway network — known as the “7918 Network”, and to enhance energy supplies through construction of new power plants such
as the Xiluodu Hydropower Plant and the Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station
Cement consumption in nonbuilding construction will continue to post the best gains of any end-use segment, rising 6.8 percent yearly through 2010. Gains will be stimulated mainly by strong growth in China’s nonbuilding construction activity. The government’s continued efforts to modernize the country’s infrastructure is exemplified by such massive projects as the South-North Water Diversion — designed to redirect water to the northern plains from central and south China. This project, scheduled for completion in 2050, will result in annual cement consumption of over one million metric tons.
Nonresidential building will remain the largest end use for cement in China, growing at a 4.6 percent annual rate through 2010. Continued strength in foreign and private direct investment in commercial real estate development will help spur market gains.
Ready-mix concrete manufacturers in China will be the strongest market for cement, climbing at an annual pace of 12.9% to reach 194 million metric tons in 2008. Growth will be driven by the government’s 2004 ban on onsite concrete production, enacted to help reduce environmental damage from onsite cement operations and improve the overall quality of concrete used in construction
McKinsey on China’s urbanization
China’s urban population will expand from 572 million in 2005 to 926 million in 2025 and hit the one billion mark by 2030. In 20 years, China’s cities will have added 350 million people—more than the entire population of the United States today [17.5 million per year]. By 2025, China will have 219 cities with more than one million inhabitants—compared with 35 in Europe today—and 24 cities with more than five million people.
China was 37.7% urban in 2002 6.3% increase in 4 years. 1.6% per year increase. 21 million per year.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.