Chinas 2008 and Future Economy

China ended 2008 with a GDP of 30.1 trillion yuan, which is $4.4 trillion at current exchange rates 6.84 to 1 USD.

Japan’s GDP for 2008 was 510.2 trillion yen [@98 yen to 1 USD this is $5.2 trillion.]

Japan’s GDP dropped at an annual pace of 12.7 percent in the October-December, 2008 period.

Japan is likely to have about -3.8% or more negative GDP contraction. If China has 7% GDP growth and China exchange rate stays constant with the US dollar then China will pass Japan if the exchange rate goes to about 105 yen to the US dollar.

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP
2007 25.77 13 7.3 3.77 3.97 13.8 Past Germany
2008 30.1 9 6.85 4.4 4.6 14.3
2009 32.2 7 6.8 4.7 4.9 14.0 Passing Japan
2010 35.1 9 6.2 5.7 5.9 14.1 Past Japan
2011 38 9 5.6 6.8 7.0 14.6
2012 41 9 5.1 8.0 8.2 15.0
2013 45 9 4.7 9.6 9.8 15.4
2014 49 9 4.2 11.7 11.9 16.0
2015 53 9 3.8 14.0 14.3 16.6
2016 58 9 3.5 16.6 16.9 17.2
2017 62 8 3.2 19.4 19.7 17.8 Past USA
2018 67 8 3 22.3 22.6 18.5
2019 73 8 3 24.3 24.6 19.2
2020 78 8 3 26.2 26.5 19.9
2021 85 8 3 28.2 28.5 20.6
2022 90 8 3 30.4 30.7 21.4
2023 97 8 3 32.7 33.0 22.1
2024 105 8 3 35.3 35.6 23.0
2025 113 8 3 38.0 38.3 23.8
2026 121 7 3 40.6 40.9 24.7
2027 129 7 3 43.4 46.3 25.6
2028 139 7 3 46.3 45.6 26.5
2029 147 7 3 49.5 49.8 27.5
2030 158 7 3 52.9 53.3 28.4

Some analysis of China’s 2009 economic situation. China fiscal deficit would be 2.92% of GDP. In comparison, the US fiscal deficit for 2009 would take up 12.5% of its GDP. China has room to increase stimulus while staying near reasonable deficit numbers.

Foreign Policy looks at China’s numerological obsession with 8% growth.

Seeking alpha has an article that the yen could be too high.

China passes Germany to become 3rd largest economy

Previous post start of credit crisis assessment

Comparison of historic GDP numbers between China and the USA

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1" REL="nofollow">101 page 2007 proceedings of the Japanese Cold Fusion conference 8 (in english)" REL="nofollow">26 pages of abstracts to the JCF8 conference" REL="nofollow">A US based journal on condensed matter physics" REL="nofollow">Blacklight power claims a 50kw prototype device


Reproducing a comment from futurepundit by wolfdog related to this article:

Wolf-Dog said at May 29, 2008 01:18 AM:
In your web site you are talking about the possibility of cold fusion being real. It is worth writing an expanded article about the late physics Nobel laureate Julian Schwinger who wrote some papers about the feasibility of cold fusion just before he died from cancer. Schwinger claims that according to his quantum mechanical calculations, cold fusion is possible because when deuterium atoms are trapped in a palladium lattice, their proximity allows for their quantum mechanical interactions to bypass the hot fusion requirement of high energy collisions. Schwinger died from cancer in 1994, and could not finish this research, but he wrote notes on this subject until his last hours. However, his articles on cold fusion, was REJECTED by the American Physical Society (by the referees who have "connections"), and as a result, Schwinger RESIGNED from the American Physical Society to protest the censorship. Schwinger said that the censorship was because of the well established hot fusion groups who are getting government funding, and when their interests are threatened, this new avenue was suppressed. Then, before his death, Schwinger started talking with Japanese physicists in order to encourage them to do un-censored research on cold fusion, and he said that "without help from Asia, cold fusion has no future in America."

=======Research on Julian Schwinger and his cold fusion position" REL="nofollow">magazine article" REL="nofollow">5 page text of 1991 talk by Schwinger" REL="nofollow">Schwinger at wikipedia


Imagine the way the world will change if this proves to be true.


Color me very skeptical. I'm not going to believe any fusion is taking place based on temperature readings alone. I'm going to need to see measurements of released neutrons or some other direct evidence of fusion taking place. Either that, or I want to see heat on the scale of melting the experiment.

I've seen some measurements of the energy involved, and frankly I don't think you can do it with 'pressurized gas'. You might could do it with things like strange matter, but to make that viable you have to find a way to keep strange matter from decaying. Good luck.


if this is the real deal then there will be more peer reviewed information that will follow on a regular basis


I do not know if the work and this stuff will pan out. Arata does not seem to be a scammer. There would certainly be easier things to scam than something like cold fusion which has so many skeptics.

If the effects and the excess heat can now be done reliably then some serious work could finally be done. This is something that I believe deserved some investigation to understand it as opposed to the emotion and resistance that is generated.

There has been talk about commercialization before so that would be a huge leap that will require serious verification.

Getting out of scorned work into valid area of study would be important.


another thing i was thinking about is the price of palladium. it looks like it is about $433 per ounce. it also looks like the global supply is at about 200 metric tons per year. If cold fusion became popular, I wonder how this would affect the supply and cost throughout the world. How much palladium would be needed to power a city of a million people?


"I see rumors in some online discussions (at Slashdot)"



Arata amd Xhang have been at this for quite a long time (since the early 90's).

I would like to see the Earthtech guys ( replicate this experiment. The Earthtech guys have a reputation of being very careful, very thorough experimenters. They have attempted to replicate all of the various "cold" fusion experiments over the years and have, so far, achieved null results.


The experimenters described the next step as attempting to scale up.

How well did the cold fusion reactor compare with hot fusion? It so happened that in 2002, laser stimulation had been used in hot fusion. With an extremely high power pulse of 10**19 watt/50 picosecond (10-12s) applied to a plasma (hot ionised gas) at a temperature of 10**4 eV, a maximum of 10**13 atoms of 4He2 were generated per pulse.

In contrast, the laser welding nuclear fusion reactor of Arata and Zhang used 300 watts, and generated 10**19 to 10**20 4He2 atoms per 10 seconds period of laser stimulation. The researchers own a patent on their reactor. At the latest International Conference on Cold Fusion which took place between 25 June and 1 July 2007, at Sochi, Russia, at least two different research groups reported replication of Arata and Zhang’s results using a variant of the procedure that involved loading D2 gas into nano-scale palladium black." REL="nofollow">from this source" REL="nofollow">India and other countries are talking about restarting funded work.

If the process works as Arata theorizes then particles of Palladium and pressurized deuterium gas seems like straight forward things to handle. Actually having a decently funded lab and project ($100 million) and it seems that this should get rolled out in a couple of years. I see rumors in some online discussions (at Slashdot) that Arata and his group have an old Fiat factory in Italy where they are using to produce actual power generation devices.


I wonder if this will be proven false? If not, how easy is this to scale up to limitless power.