China and Russia Energy Update

The new 2020 targets are 300 GW Hydro, 75GW nuclear, 150GW from renewable if targets are reached. 46% of power would be from non-coal sources if natural gas usage is increased as projected.

In 2006/7 the projection was that China would have about 35% power from non-fossil fuel sources in 2020. 270GW Hydro, 40GW nuclear, 123GW from renewable if targets are reached. 42% of power would be from non-coal sources if natural gas usage is increased as projected. CapGemini projects that China will have 1230GW of electrical power by 2020. Up from about 600GW in 2006.

The State Council was reported to be considering raising the 2020 target to 75 GWe installed and 18 GWe under construction. The State Power Grid Corporation supplied 3430 billion kWh in 2008 and (earlier) expected to supply 3810 billion kWh in 2010 from 850-900 GWe. Growth is then expected to slow to 2020, when capacity is expected to reach 1600 GWe.

China nuclear plants under construction.

Plant Province MWe gross Type Agency Start const. Operation
Lingao-2 (#3 & 4) Guangdong 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 12/05, 5/06 12/10, 8/11
Qinshan 4(#6 & 7) Zhejiang 2x650 CNP-600 CNNC 4/06, 1/07 2011, 2012
Hongyanhe 1(#1-4) Liaoning 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 8/07, 4/08, 3/09, 7/10 10/12, 2014Ningde 1 (# 1-2) Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 2/08, 11/08, 12/12-2013
Yangjiang 1(#1-2) Guangdong 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 12/08, 15/6/09 5/13, 2015
Fuqing 1(# 1-2) Fujian 2 x 1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 11/08, 2009 10/13, 8/14
Fangjiashan (Qinshan 5) Zhejiang 2 x 1080 CNNC 12/08, 6/09 12/13, 10/14
Sanmen 1(units 1 & 2) Zhejiang 2x1100 AP1000 CNNC 3/09, 2010 10/13, 2014
Haiyang (units 1 & 2) Shandong 2x1100 AP1000 CPI 9/2009, ? 2014-15
Taishan 1 (units 1 & 2) Guangdong 2x1700 EPR CGNPC 9/09, 1/10 11/13, 2015
Shidaowan Shandong 200 HTR-PM China Huaneng 9/09 2013 or 2014
Fangchengang Guangxi 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 12/09, ? 2014, ?
Yangjiang 2 (units 3 & 4) Guangdong 2x1080 CGNPC 9/09, 7/10 2015, 15
Ningde 2 (units 3 & 4) Fujian 2x1080 CGNPC 7/09. 3/10 2014, 15
Tianwan 2 (units 3&4) Jiangsu 2x1060 AES-91 CNNC 2009?
Hongshiding 1(Rushan) Shandong 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNEC/CNNC 2009 2015
Changjiang 1
Hainan 2x650 CNP-600 CNNC 2/2009 2014, 2015
Dafan, Xianning Hubei 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 2009, 2010
Xiaomoshan 1 Hunan 2x1100 AP1000 CPI 2010
Pengze 1 Jiangxi 2x1100 AP1000 CPI 2010 2015
Haiyang 2 (units 3 & 4) Shandong 2x1100 AP1000 CPI 2010?
Wuhu Anhui 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC late 2011 2015
TOTAL 45 47,420 MWe

China has about 100 more proposed nuclear reactors.

Russia is planning to grow nuclear generation more than 50% from 23 GWe gross (21.7 net) in 2006 to 35 GWe in 2016, and at least double to 51 GWe by 2020.

In February 2008 the earlier federal target plan (FTP) to 2020 was endorsed with little change except than an extra five VVER-1200 units were added as “maximum scenario” or “extra” in the last few years to 2020. As well as the 4800 MWe capacity now under construction, a further 12,000 MWe is planned for completion mostly by 2016, and then another 16,000 to 22,000 MWe proposed by 2020. Several new sites are involved. Some US$ 282 billion is to be invested by 2015, and a further $204 billion to 2020 on the projects listed. Also the new 300 MWe units were listed as being VBER-300 PWR types.

Rosatom is also planning to construct seven or eight floating nuclear power plants by 2015. The first has been under construction since April 2007 with intended completion in 2010 originally to supply the Severodvinsk region, and the second is planned for 2012 commissioning at Pevek on the Chukotka peninsula in the far east. Each has two 35 MWe KLT-40S nuclear reactors, though reactor units may be larger or smaller. (If primarily for desalination this set-up is known as APVS-80.) As of early 2009, four are designated for northern Yakutia in connection with the Elkon uranium mining project in southern Yakutia, and in 2007 an agreement was signed with the Sakha Republic (Yakutia region) to build the first of them, using smaller ABV reactors. Five are intended for use by Gazprom for offshore oil and gas field development and for operations on the Kola and Yamal peninsulas. Another was planned for Kamchatka region, also in the far east of the country. Electricity cost is expected to be much lower than from present alternatives.

The larger end of the floating nuclear power plant range uses a pair of 325 MWe VBER-300 reactors on a 49,000 tonne barge, and a smaller one could use a single RITM-200 reactor providing 55 MWe, this being a possible successor to the KLT-40. ATETs-80 and ATETs-200 are twin-reactor cogeneration units using KLT-40 and may be floating or land-based. The former produces 85 MWe plus 120,000 m3/day of potable water. The small ABV-6 reactor is 38 MW thermal and a pair mounted on a 97-metre barge is known as Volnolom floating NPP, producing 12 MWe plus 40,000 m3/day of potable water by reverse osmosis.

The guidelines for developing large-scale nuclear power in Russia were set out as follows early in the decade:

– Power costs not more than 3 cents/kWh,
– Capital costs under US$ 1000/kW,
– Service life at least 50 years,
– Utilisation rate at least 90%.

The technology future for Russia was focused on four elements:

– Serial construction of AES-2006 units,
– Fast breeder BN-800,
– Small and medium reactors – KLT-40 and VBER-300 (100-300 MWe),
– HTGR. (High Temperature Gas Reactor)

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