The Ministry of Economic Affairs used the standard GTAP Model, a global computable general equilibrium model that is widely used by major countries around the world in measuring the impact of forming a free trade area with major trading partners.
“We expect the proposed ECFA accord can be signed next year, but if the goal can be reached earlier, it would be more than welcome, ” Shih said, while fielding questions at a Legislative Yuan committee meeting.
Officials from both sides of the Taiwan Strait will hold a fourth round of informal talks on the ECFA deal late this month and formal talks are expected to get underway later this year.
Taiwan has been pushing for the trade agreement with China, its largest export market, fearing it could be marginalized when the Asean +3 start removing the tariffs.
Taiwan has called it an “economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) ” while China has called it a “cross-strait economic cooperation agreement” without the word framework.
Once “ASEAN plus 3” becomes a reality, with which China, Japan and South Korea forming a free trade area with ASEAN countries, Taiwan’s annual GDP growth rate might see an even bigger drop of 0.836 percent, the CIER report conjectured.
As to how the ministry will promote the ECFA project, Yiin said the proposed pact will only outline negotiation goals and timeframes for reaching each policy goal or cooperation project in a gradual manner in order to minimize any possible negative impact on local industries.
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