An Attempt to Project Foreward 40 Years on Model Income
Goldmans Sachs had a forecast of GDP for the top 22 countries until 2050 and this was used to approximate world GDP growth. Using wikipedia estimates of future population the mean average GDP per capita was calculated. This was used to approximate the shift in modal income into the future.
There are several ways that this method could be off.
1) The Goldman Sachs estimates could be wrong. In particular China’s GDP is projected by some to be 20% of Goldmans estimate and some have it 200% of Goldman Sachs. Disruptive technology such as molecular nanotechnology, super robotics, cheap nuclear fusion or AGI could arrive and alter the economic picture.
2) The World GDP may not track proportionally with the GDP of the top 22.
3) The modal income may not shift exactly in proportion to the mean income.
4) The population projection could be off
The biggest source of error is the first and the degree of possible error shrinks for the factors listed.
Projected Modal Income is on the last line of the table.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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