The groups are:
low income, $975 or less
lower middle income, $976 – $3,855
upper middle income, $3,856 – $11,905
high income, $11,906 or more.
The World Bank is forecasting China’s GDP growth in 2010 to be 9.5% Inflation will reach 3.5‐4 percent on average in 2010.
Looking at an expected range of exchange rates and GDP growth estimates:
33.5 trillion * 1.095 growth / 1.35 billion @ 6.7 exchange rate
would be $4055 per capita
This is higher than the $3856 cutoff and has some room for inflation adjustment of the 2008 number.
33.5 trillion * 1.1 growth / 1.35 billion @6.6 exchange rate would be $4135 per capita
33.5 trillion * 1.105 growth / 1.35 billion @6.5 exchange rate would be $4219 per capita
There is a 2010 business and population census in China. This could lead to an adjustment in estimated population and a new estimate of GDP.
China should become a high income country in 2016-2017 assuming 9% annual GDP growth and the yuan appreciating to about 3.5 yuan to the US dollar. It is also assumed that China’s population will peak in 2026 at about 1.4 billion people (US Census Bureau estimate)
China Per Capita GDP Estimates 2010 $4150 2011 $4870 2012 $5760 2013 $6860 2014 $8070 2015 $10800 2016 $12800 - Exceeds the $11906 cutoff for World Bank High Income 2017 $15100 - Probably exceeds an inflation adjusted cutoff 2018 $17300 2019 $18800 2020 $20300
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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