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The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for China from 8.7 percent to 9.5 percent, citing a boost in exports, strong growth in real estate and robust domestic spending.
The growth in 2010 would rely less on government stimulus spending, the main force driving the 8.7 percent growth in 2009. China would continue to bolster its economy through government-led investment, but on a much smaller scale, the report said.
Thanks to an impressive recovery early this year and a pickup in the global economy, exports are likely to grow for the whole year and contribute to the economic growth. However, uncertainties remain for later this year.
Another major boost for China’s economy this year comes from the real estate sector, which is likely to add significantly more to growth than in 2009 as it begins to rebound.
Inflation will reach 3.5‐4 percent on average in 2010, largely due to rising food prices, but prices are not likely to continue to increase as rapidly as they did at the end of 2009 because the factors behind food price increases are not likely to persist.
Property prices may well continue to rise significantly this year, particularly in the first half.
The World Bank predicted a sluggish recovery in 2010-11 for rich countries. Growth in developed countries will be 1.8 percent in 2010, and edge up to 2.3 percent in 2011, while emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow at 5.2 percent in 2010 and 5.8 percent in 2011
India’s GDP Forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Indian economy to grow by 8 per cent during 2010-11, though high inflation and rising fiscal deficit would continue to remain areas of concern.
The Fund, however, forecasts a moderately lower growth rate for the 2011-12 fiscal at 7.7 percent.
Rio Tinto (mining company) has a long term economic forecast where India’s GDP growth eventually starts to outpace China’s GDP growth around 2025
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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