Helen Wang says –
I believe that China’s economy will continue to grow rapidly over the next 10 to 15 years. After that, it will slow down when its per capita income approaches $10,000. That will make China’s economy close to the size of the U. S. economy.
Actually if the first part is true, that China continues to grow rapidly for 12 years and there is 100% currency appreciation, then China would be at $25,000 per capita income and would be about twice the size of the US economy.This site has previously covered a Boston Consulting Group detailed analysis of China in 2020.
By 2020, half of the urban population will live in cities with over one million people. There will be 800 locations with real disposable incomes higher than in Shanghai today.
China’s growth will bring close to 100 million households earning at least 60,000 yuan per year (about $9,000) into the middle- and affluent-class (MAC) segments from 2010 to 2020–roughly the same number of MAC-equivalent households as in the United States today. The increase in MAC households will double consumer spending power in nearly a quarter of China’s cities and counties over the next decade.
Wikipedia has a list of Chinese administrative divisions by GDP per capita (2009)
Shanghai and Beijing are aleady over $10,000 per capita and soon Tianjin will be past the $10,000 per capita level.
Why is it believed that other provinces and cities will not be able to follow. China is at about 50% urbanization now. China is heading to 80-90% urbanization. China is damming rivers to deepen them to enable ten thousand ton barges to go inland. This and other infrastructure moves is enabling the interior to more closely match the economic development of coastal cities.
Helen also says that China is not exporting ideas and ideology.
China had cultural dominance in the past. Plus how many ideas was the US exporting before becoming number one in GDP ? Back when the UK was number one how much was the US being copied ?
Also, Helen asks how many other countries are allies of China.
More countries are shifting into China’s economic orbit. As China’s trade and consumption increases, then more countries will tie themselves to China.
When China is the number one economy in the world (which I predict to be about 2016-2018) the shift will accelerate.
Helen also talks about China’s lower military spending. When China is over twice the economic size of the USA and caught up technologically for a couple decades, then we can take a look at comparing military capability.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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