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Taiwan is scheduled to sign signed its first trade treaty with China tomorrow, strengthening commercial ties with the fastest-growing major economy and the island’s biggest trading partner and investment destination.
* China will cut tariffs on 539 items from Taiwan valued at $13.8 billion, or about 16 percent of the island’s 2009 exports to the mainland
* Taiwan will cut tariffs on 267 items from China worth $2.86 billion, or about 10.5 percent of the country’s shipments to Taiwan in 2009
* Direct air, shipping and postal links were already re-established. In the first five months of this year, 70,445 Chinese visited Taiwan, 70 percent more than in the corresponding period a year earlier
Analysts caution that the deal may be the peak for cross-strait relations, at least for the next few years. Any further major deals like ECFA are unlikely until (and if) Taiwan’s China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou is reelected in 2012. And the chances for political or military talks remain slim.
Ma and his party will face tough local elections this November, a legislative election in late 2011, and a March 2012 reelection bid.
The ECFA deal will now be sent to Taiwan’s legislature, and the opposition has already begun a debate on how that review process should go. The opposition also looks set to moot another proposal to put ECFA to an island-wide referendum (two previous proposals were rejected by a referendum review committee). But the opposition holds too few seats to block the deal, meaning final passage is expected later this summer.
* In January, a separate trade accord took effect between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, lowering tariffs on two-way trade. Similar deals for China with Japan and South Korea are under discussion.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.