Middle sized cities will be the source of world GDP growth


Today, developed economies such as the U.S., Western Europe and emerging market megacities—cities with more than ten million people—contribute 73 percent of world GDP growth. By 2025, their contribution diminishes to a mere one-third of global GDP. McKinsey has a report – Urban world: Mapping the economic power of cities (62 pages)

23 megacities and 577 middleweights make up one-fifth of the world’s population and two-thirds are located in emerging market countries, including China, India and Latin America. Most of the economic growth will come from the 577 middle weight (population 150,000 to 10 million) cities in the emerging markets.

The population of these 600 cities is estimated to grow 1.6 times faster than global population, and 250 million new households are expected. China and Sub-Saharan Africa are two areas with the fastest pace of household growth, and both are expected to double by 2025. The growth in these emerging market cities could be so tremendous that by 2025, one out of every three developed market cities will likely be replaced by emerging world middleweights. China hosts the majority of these growth hotspots, but others include the cities of Fortaleza and Manaus in Brazil, Sharjah in the Middle East, and Nagpur and Vadodara in India.

In terms of urban GDP growth from 2007-2025 by country
1. China        17.1 trillion
2. USA           5.9 trillion
3. India         2.0 trillion
4. Brazil        1.5 trillion
5. Mexico        0.87 trillion
6. S. Korea      0.82 trillion
7. Russia        0.68 trillion
8. UK            0.62 trillion
9. Taiwan        0.59 trillion
10. Turkey       0.53 trillion
11. Germany      0.52 trillion
12. Indonesia    0.50 trillion
13. Japan        0.49 trillion
14. Australia    0.47 trillion
15. France       0.41 trillion
16. S Africa     0.41 trillion
17. Canada       0.36 trillion
18. Saudi Arabia 0.33 trillion
19. Malaysia     0.29 trillion
20. Columbia     0.29 trillion

 

Today in the top 600 cities
* 1.5 billion people
* 30 trillion in GDP (half of the worlds GDP)
* 485 million households with average per capita GDP of $20,000

In 2025 in the top 600 cities
* 2 billion people
* 64 trillion in GDP (60% of the worlds GDP in 2025)
* 735 million households with average per capita GDP of $32,000

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