Plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicles with large Li-ion batteries will sputter, while smaller batteries for e-bike and micro-hybrids fuel a $30 billion market, says Lux Research. The overall market for energy storage technologies that power electric vehicles is set to grow from $13 billion in 2011 to $30 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18%. But, while prominent plug-in passenger cars like the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf grab most of the headlines, the bulk of future growth will be driven by more humble vehicles, such as e-bikes and micro-hybrids
Currently there are approximately 140 million ebikes and scooter in use in China. Last year, the booming Asian economy manufactured about 25 million EV 2-wheelers, of which some 600,000 were exported.
We estimate the annual growth of EV2wheelers in China will maintain 10% or more than that. In 2015, we estimate the production volume will reach 35 million and export volume will reach 2 million,” says Sun Li, an engineer from the China Electronic Society.
Electric bicycles are an attractive option for commuters, service people, and couriers. At a cost of 1,500-3000 RMB, an electric bike is much more affordable than an automobile. Also the ban on gas-powered motocycles has stimulated the growth of EV 2-wheelers. Currently more than ninety Chinese cities ban motorcycles. Then there are rising gasoline prices to factor into the rush for EV 2 wheelers.
Among the report’s key findings:
* Micro-hybrids offer auto OEMs the shortest road to improved fuel efficiency. Micro-hybrids, which apply energy storage only toward start-stop and/or regenerative braking applications, require neither the drastic redesigns nor the more expensive battery costs that all-electric or hybrid electric vehicles do. Thus, they are set to surpass these other passenger vehicle types in terms of both total storage and dollars in 2016, growing from 5.1 GWh and $495 million, to 41 GWh and $3.1 billion – CAGRs of 52% and 44%, respectively.
* E-bikes pack minimal storage but compensate with sheer volume. Although their 0.4 kWh to 1.0 kWh of storage is a far cry from the Nissan Leaf’s 24-kWh battery pack, e-bikes will continue to dominate the overall market in terms of dollars and MWh. Replacement batteries for the currently deployed base – largely in China – plus strong growth in new sales will drive growth from 84.2 GWh and $12.0 billion in 2011, to 156.6 GWh and $24.3 billion in 2016, a CAGR of 13% in kWh and 15% in dollars.
* Advanced lead-acid batteries dominate the current and future storage market. While Li-ion technology will eat into lead-acid sales for e-bikes, and supercapacitors will steal share in micro-hybrids, lead-acid will maintain a comfortable lead in both of these high-volume and growing markets. Overall, the market for lead-acid batteries will grow from 83 GWh and $9.4 billion in 2011, to 165 GWh and $16.1 billion in 2016, CAGRs of 15% and 12%, respectively.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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