The Economics of the Singularity by J Storrs Hall (13 pages)
Divide writers and thinkers into two categories: hedgehogs, who view the world through the lens of a single defining idea and foxes who draw on a wide variety of experiences and for whom the world cannot be boiled down to a single idea.
Tetlock: Expert Political Judgement
– Taleb: Black Swan
– Gardner: Future Babble
● Experts with an idee fixe (hedgehogs) were worse than random chance
● Regression and extrapolation typically outperformed experts
The Printing Press Presaged the Industrial Revolution
By ca. 1700, printed material had jumped to a 5% growth mode
● The general economy followed, using similar techniques
Moore’s Law Presages the Nanotech Revolution
● By ca. 2000, information had jumped to a 100% growth mode
● The physical economy will follow, using similar techniques
● I do not think growth will exceed O(100%) before 2100: there are too many bottlenecks
Independent AIs will be corporations, competing for customers.
Will AIs compete humans out of the labor market?
● Collectively, this is what we want
– The human race “retires”
– The robots do all the work
– Human activity consists in deciding what we want
– Upper classes have lived this way throughout history
The Man With a Country
● By 2065, a billion AIs will cost $1
● We can simply give each person a nationful of productive intellects, at trivial cost
● Similarly, an autogenous nanofactory that can make approximately anything
● The interesting part will be getting there from here
A Galactic Scale Uploaded Civilization: 10**50 Simulated Human Mind Equivalents
If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.