World oil supply rose by 1.0 mb/d in August, to 89.1 mb/d, with non-OPEC production up by 0.8 mb/d. Rising US and Latin American production offset heavy maintenance and field outages in the North Sea. Non-OPEC supply has been revised lower to 52.8 mb/d in 2011 on outages in the Middle East and China, rising to 53.8 mb/d in 2012.
August OPEC crude oil output was up by 165 kb/d, to 30.26 mb/d with production still 1.04 mb/d below the 31.3 mb/d 3Q11 ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’. However, the ‘call’ for 4Q11 has been lowered by 0.2 mb/d to 30.5 mb/d, due to weaker demand. With the end of Libya’s civil conflict on the horizon, we have revised up our Libyan capacity outlook for 4Q11 by 0.1 mb/d, to 0.3 mb/d.
Global refinery crude runs have been revised down by close to 0.3 mb/d for both 3Q11 and 4Q11 in light of the weaker demand outlook and higher outages scheduled for a number of countries. Global throughputs are now seen rising 1.7 mb/d in 3Q11 versus 2Q11, to 75.6 mb/d and averaging 75.4 mb/d in 4Q11.
Global oil demand is revised down by 0.2 mb/d for 2011 and by 0.4 mb/d for 2012 on lower non-OECD readings and reduced economic growth expectations. Global GDP growth is now seen at 3.9% in 2011 and at 4.2% in 2012 with significant downside risks. Demand estimates now stand at 89.3 mb/d in 2011 (+1.0 mb/d y-o-y) and 90.7 mb/d in 2012 (+1.4 mb/d y‑o‑y).