Iraq targets 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day by end of 2012 and the Libya restart of oil production

1. Ahmed Al Shamma deputy oil minister of Iraq said that “By the end of next year [2012] I think it could be in the region of 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day.” He reiterated that Iraq was aiming for oil output at 3 million barrels per day by the end of this year.

2. The IEA predicted a slower resumption of output in Libya than the producer group. The North African nation will likely restore output to 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day by the end of this year, from zero last month, according to the IEA. OPEC forecast that Libya can reach 1 million barrels a day within six months and full capacity within 18 months.>

The IEA reduced its estimate for 2012 consumption by 400,000 barrels a day, and for 2011 by 200,000 a day. Worldwide demand will rise by 1.2 percent to 89.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.6 percent to 90.7 million next year.

OPEC predicts it will need to provide 29.67 million barrels a day in the first quarter of next year and 28.44 million in the second. Its 12 members have pumped an average 29.88 million a day in July and August. With an additional 1 million a day from Libya in the first quarter of 2012, group output would be about 30.88 million, exceeding demand by 1.2 million barrels a day.

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