Voice of Russia had a talk on February 3, 2012 more about the Florida Republican Primary and what would be happening afterward with myself Brian Wang, owner and primary writer for www.nextbigfuture.com, and Phil Jennerjahn, who is running for Congress in California.
In September, 2011, the Voice of Russia interviewed me about the trans-Siberian Bering Strait oil Pipeline. Therefore, I was in the US branch of the Voice of Russia’s database of potential interviewees. They called my in the morning for a 15 minute interview over the phone at lunch time. Ask me if I could do this interview on this topic and I said sure. Why not. I have a detailed opinion.
The questions were about Newt Gingrich trying to get rules changed for Florida so that he would get proportional allocation. The answer was that was both meaningless and unlikely. They also asked about getting the rules for future primaries fixed. Again this is unlikely because the national election committees have not shown that they are likely to get more control of the committees in each state. There were also questions about what will happen in the rest of the Republican presidential race.
NOTE- yes this is a political topic. Why is a political topic on Nextbigfuture ? Because I was interviewed about it by for the internet and radio service of the Voice of Russia. The Voice of Russia is the Russian equivalent of the Voice of America.
More about the Interview
Looking forward I indicated that the only hope Gingrich has is if Santorum drops out and Gingrich can successfully take all of the Santorum support as the anti-Romney.
As happened in Nevada, I have indicated that the upcoming caucus primaries could see Santorum coming in fourth several times. Santorum is running out of money and several fourth place finishes could put an end to his campaign.
Realclearpolitics has the schedule of primaries and what type of primary they are (caucus, primary) an whether they are open or closed races and what type of race (winner take all or proportional.
The details of how the races are run effect how well candidates do. Ron Paul does better in caucuses and open races.
I did not get a chance to discuss it but Gingrich also has money issues. Mitt Romney supporters are wooing Adelson who is the billionaire owner of the Venetian casinos. Sheldon Adelson is the main financial supporter for Gingrich.
Ron Paul will be stronger in the caucuses and especially open primaries. Iowa has to have been lucky timing for Santorum to get his not-Romney turn. Of course if I ran a Romney Superpac, I would dribble enough money to Santorum to keep him in until after March 6 -Super Tuesday.
Even under these scenario – Romney’s money advantage (10 to 1 including superpac) and microtargeting (grab a lot more absentee mail in ballots) and other operational advantages are a lot to overcome.
90+% likelihood of Romney for Republican nominee and likely closes the deal on March 6.
60-40 for odds in favor of Obama to win second term.
Obama has the massive advantage of being able to buy votes with legislation.
The new mortgage plans (modifying HAMP and HARP) for refinancing. New rules go into effect in May. Still being hammered out.
The student loans being forgiven. Student loans are bigger than the credit debt market.
Arrangements have been made for the Germans and ECB (European central bank) to run the printing presses for Euros. Euro banks have unlimited ECB credit. No deep recession in Europe and no harm to US and World economy from Europe
QE3 (Quantative Easing 3). We hear that is coming in May-June. Another $600 billion extra guarantee for no recession before the November election.
This is all mostly not good longer term, but this is how it plays out.
The more interesting thing than the presidential race.
The Senate is in my opinion more than 80% likely to go Republican. Intrade has it at about 70-75%.
Safe senate seats break out 47 to 45 for Republicans. So getting 4 out of 8 tossups means the Republicans get 51 senate seats. Plus the Tea Party is so organized that seems very likely. I would have my over under at 53 senate seats for Republicans.
Republicans hold onto the House. Intrade has that at about 70% as well.
Republicans gain a net of 5 Governors.
So what will happen with Obama against Republican senate and house and with equal or more Republican governors ?
Obama will be in his last term because of term limits. So that means Obama will finally be out of campaign mode and into legacy mode. Obama can then pivot and make whatever deals are necessary with Republicans for legislation to build a legacy.
The increase in Republicans governors mean that Republicans set up stronger in 2014, 2016 etc..