This is a review of estimates for a nuclear energy century.
1000 reactors for 2030 would be the high-2030 scenario from the World Nuclear Association (WNA) – Nuclear Century. The WNA lists nuclear generation targets by country.
China is talking to Turkey and Vietnam about building nuclear reactors
Since October 2008, two reactors total 2000 MWe have been planned at Phuoc Dinh in the southern Ninh Thuan province. A further 2000 MWe was planned at Vinh Hai nearby, followed by a further 6000 MWe by 2030. Both locations are based particularly on geological suitability on the coast. A high demand scenario would give 8000 MWe in 2025 and 15,000 MWe (10% of total) in 2030 at up to eight sites in five provinces. Four more units would be added to the first two sites, then six more at three or four central sites in provinces of Quang Ngai (Duc Thang or Duc Chanh), Binh Dinh (Hoai My) and Phu Yen (Xuan Phuong). These, plus Ky Xuan in the northern Ha Tinh province, remained proposals in mid 2011.
Turkey looks likely to have more than 8 nuclear reactors
The high case from WNA with only China increased. Uprating and cheaper exports and new factory mass produced reactors could increase these numbers even more. Programmes* 2008 2030 High 2030 Expectation Capacity in GWe After Fukushima Argentina 1 11 3 Armenia 0 1 1 Belarus 0 5 5 Belgium 6 8 6 Brazil 2 30 30 Bulgaria 2 7 2 Canada 13 30 30 China 9 300 300 Czech Republic 7 4 Finland 3 7 5 France 63 75 75 Germany 20 50 0 Hungary 2 5 5 India 4 70 70 Iran 0 10 10 Japan 48 70 40 Lithuania/ Latvia/ Estonia 1 6 2 Mexico 1 20 5 Netherlands 1 5 5 Pakistan 0 20 10 Romania 1 10 10 Russia 22 80 80 Slovakia 2 4 4 Slovenia 1 1 1 South Africa 2 25 10 South Korea 18 50 50 Spain 7 20 7 Sweden 9 15 15 Switzerland 3 6 1 Ukraine 13 30 21 United Kingdom 11 30 30 United States 99 180 120 SUBTOTAL 367 1188 957 Nations Planning Nuclear 2008 2030 High Capacity in GWe Egypt 0 10 2 Gulf Coop 0 50 50 Indonesia 0 6 6 Kazakhstan 0 2 2 Nigeria 0 15 15 Poland 0 10 10 Turkey 0 15 15 Vietnam 0 15 15 SUBTOTAL 0 123 115 *Gulf Cooperation Council members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Potential Entrants 2008 2030 High Capacity in GWe Albania 0 2 0 Algeria 0 5 0 Australia 0 10 0 Austria 0 3 0 Bangladesh 0 10 0 Chile 0 5 0 Croatia 0 2 0 Denmark 0 2 0 Greece 0 2 0 Iraq 0 2 0 Ireland 0 5 0 Israel 0 3 1 Italy 0 20 10 Jordan 0 7 1 Kenya 0 2 0 Malaysia/Singapore 0 10 0 Morocco 0 5 0 New Zealand 0 2 0 Norway 0 2 0 Philippines 0 10 0 Portugal 0 5 0 Serbia 0 2 0 Syria 0 3 0 Thailand 0 10 0 Venezuela 0 3 0 Other 0 4 0 SUBTOTAL 0 140 12 WORLD TOTAL 367 1450 1084
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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