The World Nuclear Association reports 53,494 tons of uranium produced for 2011.
The WNA reference scenario projects world uranium demand as about 72,680 tU in 2015.
Some of the new mines expected to reach substantial production in the next few years are:
Vitimsky Russia 2012 Four Mile Australia 2013 Cigar Lake Canada 2013 Imouraren Niger 2014 Husab Namibia 2014 Valencia Namibia 2015 Omahola Namibia 2015 Trekkopje Namibia 2017 Morocco (phosphate by-product) Morocco 2017 Dornod Mongolia 2018
WNA expects 2012 production to be 52,221 tU. UxC predicts about 63,600 tU in 2012.
Cameco’s uranium production was up 2% for the first three month of 2012 compared to 2011.
Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium “civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years” and “the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable”. Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar
1. World Uranium production (I won in 2010, 2011)
2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018 (I won in 2010, lost 2009 and 2011)
3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan (I won 2010, 2011)
So out of 8 bets, I have won 6 bets and lost 2.
Dittmar Brian Midpoint 2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5 Actual 2558 twh 2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590 Actual 2630 twh 2011 2550 2650 2600 Actual 2518 twh 2012 2550 2700 2625 2013 2525 2750 2637.5 2014 2250 2800 2525 2015 2250 2900 2575 2016 2250 3200 2725 2017 2250 3500 2875 2018 2250 3800 3025
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010 2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons 19,450 tons in 2011
World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint 2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 53,494 tons 2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons 2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons 2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons 2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
The world nuclear generation bet is likely to be won by Dittmar due to Japan and Germany turning off operational reactors because of public fears after Fukushima. Other nuclear generating nations actually did quite well, so the actual miss on generation will not be that large.
Japan is talking about turning on some of their reactors again and will have power shortages this summer if they do not.
There are about 14 nuclear reactors getting started in 2012.
14 more nuclear reactors starting in 2013 and 19 nuclear reactors in 2014
I am expecting some of Japans reactors to get restarted in 2012 and most of the operating reactors to restart in 2013.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.