The Oildrum had an article that suggests that North Dakota oil production will plateau at about the current level of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day.
Seeking Alpha – Michael Filloon indicates where the Oildrum analysis is not correct
What the Oildrum Red Queen article misses is the geology is only a small part of what makes a good well. There is no doubt Alger and Sanish fields are some of the best Williston Basin acreage, but fields like Westberg and Poe have produced excellent results as well. The author stated that the Liffrig well is the average producer in North Dakota, but that was also a time when the majority of producers were still using twenty stage fracs and getting comfortable with the geology.
In future articles on this subject I will tie in more recent results and how those compare with the wells completed two and three years ago. What these well results will show is how closely production is tied into well design and has little to do with small sweet spots from one mile to the next. This is important, as much of the information used in this research back in 2010 had very large production differences from one operator to the next. We will also see that very large specific areas are economic. Those companies that fail to spend money to produce oil in the Bakken will find depletion numbers much higher than that of a company that understands the long term benefits of using the best completion methods.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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