Singularity Summit – Vernor Vinge – Who is Afraid of First Movers #SS12

Vernor Vinge talks about Who is afraid of first movers

5 kinds of superintelligences.
He thinks they will all happen, resulting in different styles of mind.
He discusses differences risks and precedents

1. Computer based path to AGI
Classical Artificial intelligence

2. Intelligence Amplification

Extreme UIs
Get answers from wikipedia as fast as you can

Intelligence amplification
Hans Moravec
ride the curve of improved cognition

3. Digital Gaia
Devices in all things
Talk to any node in the network
Suites of sensors and effectors

Reality would wake up

Our world a model reality

Ball point pen dropping
we know what will happen

Digital Gaia – Things would be as stable as financial markets of today

This scares Vernor most right now

4. Group Minds
the internet, data and algorithms, plus hundred of millions of humans

Super crowd sourcing for better future institution

Computers are not at the center on the list except this 4th one
People with a knack for identifying how proteins will fold better than experts

Potential for tapping the best of people and having the systems leverage it.
Better pattern recognition.

Crowdsourced intelligence amplification

Karl Schroeder -different species of mind

Crowdsource to look for risks

5. Biomedical enhancement of human cognition

Turing test passing AGI, could be fooled into thinking it is an upload and then
convince others that it is an upload.

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