I think that the NIC forecast is underestimating the growth of China by 2030. I think China’s economy will be more than double the US GDP in 2030
I also think that there will be more technological impact over the next 18 years.
Factory mass produced skyscrapers and robotic cars will have a significant impact on the world economy. The factory mass produced skyscrapers could have about 30% of the world commercial construction market by 2020. Taller and vastly more affordable buildings will increase the productivity of cities and increase the rate of world urbanization.
I see the impact of Sky Cities and Broad Factory mass produced skyscrapers like the move from 3 to 4 story buildings to cities with 30 story buildings. Average skyscrapers are now 30 to 50 stories tall. This factory mass production will make 100 to 300 story buildings affordable and common.
Eight times the density would be a 45% boost to productivity.
Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.
The Sky Cities are also designed to reduce pollution (99% less construction dust) and use 5 times less material than a regular skyscraper. They would also house homes, offices and stores which will enable more in building commuting. This will boost productivity and reduce commuting times.
NIC projects China’s economy to be just larger than or just smaller than the USA.
China moved up from 7.9% of the US economy to 55%
The US economy then had real growth of 42% over the 18 years from 1994 to 2012.
China’s economy grew nearly 9 times (after the 1.56 deflator) from 1994 to 2012.
There are other projections of 2030 GDP which expect China’s economy to be twice as large as the US economy in 2030. (The OECD Development Centre made projections in 2010 by updating the work of Angus Maddison.)
Industries of 2030
The seven new strategic industries include energy conservation and environment protection, new information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, new energy and new-energy cars, according to the plan.
The seven industries will maintain an average growth rate of more than 20 percent during the 2011-15 period, the plan said.
The total value-added output of the industries will account for around 8 percent in China’s GDP by 2015, it said
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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