Is it the beginning of the end of Moore’s law or the beginning of the end of AMD ?
AMD claims that the delay in transitioning from 28nm to 20nm highlights the beginning of the end for Moore’s Law. John Gustafson, chief graphics product architect at AMD, has said that Moore’s Law is ending because it actually refers to a doubling of transistors that are economically viable to produce.
Gustafson said, “You can see how Moore’s Law is slowing down. The original statement of Moore’s Law is the number of transistors that is more economical to produce will double every two years. It has become warped into all these other forms but that is what he originally said.”
According to Gustafson, the transistor density afforded by a process node defines the chip’s economic viability. He said, “We [AMD] want to also look for the sweet spot, because if you print too few transistors your chip will cost too much per transistor and if you put too many it will cost too much per transistor. We’ve been waiting for that transistion from 28nm to 20nm to happen and it’s taking longer than Moore’s Law would have predicted.”
Gustafson was pretty clear in his view of transistor density, saying, “I’m saying you are seeing the beginning of the end of Moore’s law.”
It could be the economics rather than the engineering that puts an end to Moore’s Law
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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