Goldman Sachs believes the ‘new’ China urbanization will aim for a shift in focus, in which incremental benefits will be more likely to accrue to social safety nets / consumption areas, while FAI ( fixed asset investment) will become more selective and targeted. In this report, we address several misconceptions about the future for urbanization.
A more concrete urbanization blueprint unveiled in the coming months. Premier Li Keqiang has identified top policy issues as geographic strategy, land reform, hukou reform, natural resource support, and environmental issues. Funding source is also a big challenge, in our [Goldman] view.
Healthcare and Insurance will be the big winning sectors with the new China urbanization.
Limitations in land and environment favor Broad Group Skyscrapers to continue old model urbanization
The Goldman study cites land scarcity and environmental and road limitations. Goldman expects more growth in townships to get around those problems. Nextbigfuture believes that Broad Group skyscrapers would enable more growth in first tier, second tier and third tier cities.
Land scarcity: Land is a scarce resource in China and the government has already been struggling to maintain its minimum commitment of 1.8bn mu of arable agricultural land. Simply building many more cities may not be feasible.
Environmental and other limitations : Some of China’s largest and most popular cities (such as Beijing) are facing clear bottlenecks not resolvable by simply more investment. For example, more roads and subways could possibly alleviate traffic congestion. However, other issues such as nature degradation, pollution, etc. are difficult to overcome in a short period of time, limiting the capacity for such cities to take in a faster pace of population inflow
They have very good air purification systems for reducing indoor air pollution by over 99%.
The factory built system would reduce construction dust air pollution.
They envision clean offices, homes (up to 3000 square feet), hospitals, schools, exercise facilities, pools, restaurants and grocery stores.
They are projecting multiple Sky cities making up the urban core and enabling a lot more green space.