Predicting the market for Dwave Quantum Computers

In 2012, the market for high-performance computing (HPC), especially large supercomputer systems, grew 7.7 percent year-over-year, according to new figures released by IDC March 21. This equaled more than $11 billion in yearly revenue. During the next three years, the market for this high-performance system is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.3 percent, topping out at $14 billion by 2015.

Of all the different supercomputer and HPC segments, the higher-end systems — ones that cost $500,000 or more — grew the most in 2012. Here, revenue increased nearly 30 percent to $5.6 billion.

The GPU was introduced to the market in 1999. GPU now have a big part of the high performance computing market.

I think that Dwave quantum computers will establish themselves in the market at a slightly slower pace than GPUs.

They will get about a 10-20% chunk of the high end of the supercomputer market. There is about a 25% chunk that performs the kind of calculations which Dwave’s quantum computers are or will be better. There will also be some new market created for certain government and artificial intelligence applications of the DWave system.

Dwave will also get some lowend optimization market by providing solutions via their cloud service.

A problem that DWave will have to overcome is educating the market about how to use their systems and understanding what they can do and the benefits that they can provide.

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