Could Indonesia surpass India on a nominal GDP basis ?

Indonesia’s economy Gross Domestic Product stands at IDR 8,200 trillion, of which household consumption contributes around IDR 5,000 trillion.

The Exchange rate has been about 8500 to 10000 IDR to 1 USD. It did spike as high as 12000 to one in the financial crisis.

Indonesia seems to be on track for consistent GDP growth in the 6-7% per year range. The growth seems balanced and Indonesia has solid youthful demographics.

There are projections that India and Brazil will have larger economies than Japan and will be larger economies than Indonesia in 2030.

However, India and Brazil have had more problems with their economic growth recently. India could easily slip back to 3-5% GDP growth with a continually weakening currency.

India’s economy is down to $1.68 trillion on an exchange basis now.

A reasonably possible scenario is where Indonesia has GDP growth that averages 2% per year more than India and where the Indonesian Rupiah strengthens to about 6000-9000 per US dollar while the India Rupi weakens by about 10% per year. Indonesia would then pass India’s nominal GDP in about 8-15 years.

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