World energy forecast to 2040

The EIA has a new energy forecast out to 2040.

They forecast world energy to go up about 56% but
* world electricity will go up 93%
* non-OECD will go up 90%
* nuclear energy will more than double

World electricity generation is set to grow by 93% from the 2010 level to 39,000 TWh by 2040, according to the EIA (International Energy Outlook 2013) – the statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. The fastest growing sources of world energy are renewables (including hydro, wind and solar) and nuclear power, each of which is expected to grow 2.5% annually between 2010 and 2040.

GDP Projection that is the basis for the energy projection

The world’s real gross domestic product (GDP, expressed in purchasing power parity terms) rises by an average of 3.6 percent per year from 2010 to 2040. The fastest rates of growth are projected for the emerging, non-OECD regions, where combined GDP increases by 4.7 percent per year. In the OECD regions, GDP grows at a much slower rate of 2.1 percent per year over the projection, owing to more mature economies and slow or declining population growth trends.

Energy by Type

The coal-fired share of world electricity generation declines from 40 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2040, while the renewables share increases from 21 percent to 25 percent, the natural gas share from 22 percent to 24 percent, and the nuclear share from 13 percent to 14 percent.

World coal production parallels demand, increasing from 8 billion short tons in 2010 to 11.5 billion short tons in 2040 and reflecting the same expansion in the near term, followed by much slower growth in later years. Global coal production is concentrated among four countries—China, the United States, India, and Australia—and in the other countries of non-OECD Asia (mainly Indonesia). Their combined share of total world coal production increases in the IEO2013 Reference case from 78 percent in 2010 to 81 percent in 2040. China alone accounted for 44 percent of global coal production in 2010, and its share peaks at 52 percent in 2030.

Carbon intensity of output—the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output—is a common measureit is sometimes used as a stand-alone measure for tracking progress in relative emissions reductions. Energy-related carbon dioxide intensities improve (decline) in all IEO regions over the projection period, as economies continue to use energy more efficiently. Estimated carbon dioxide intensity declines by 1.9 percent per year in the OECD economies and by 2.7 percent per year in the non-OECD economies from 2010 to 2040

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